Football · Denmark Division 3 · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Næsby vs Holbæk

Team pages: Næsby · Holbæk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Næsby1.61

Holbæk2.01

1X2

30% 24% 46%

Næsby Draw Holbæk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Næsby 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWWLD

Holbæk 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Næsby 2–2–2 Holbæk (6 last)

Holbæk3-2Næsby
Holbæk1-2Næsby
Næsby2-0Holbæk
Holbæk2-2Næsby
Næsby3-3Holbæk
Holbæk4-0Næsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Næsby 1525 · Holbæk 1546

	Næsby	Draw	Holbæk
Our model	30%	23%	46%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Næsby	Holbæk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.9	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +18’	3.00	3.75	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Næsby 2–2–2 Holbæk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	3-2 HT 2-2	Næsby
07/03/26 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	1-2 HT 0-0	Næsby
04/10/25 Denmark Division 3	Næsby	2-0 HT 2-0	Holbæk
24/05/25 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	2-2 HT 1-0	Næsby
03/05/25 Denmark Division 3	Næsby	3-3 HT 1-2	Holbæk
15/03/25 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	4-0 HT 3-0	Næsby

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	12	8	2	2	30	18	26
2	Bronshoj BK	12	7	4	1	26	13	25
3	Vanløse	12	5	6	1	18	11	21
4	FC Helsingor	12	6	2	4	20	16	20
5	Næsby	12	5	3	4	22	18	18
6	Horsholm-Usserod IK	12	4	4	4	25	22	16
7	ASA Aarhus	12	5	1	6	16	18	16
8	Ishoj	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
9	Frem	12	3	4	5	20	20	13
10	Sundby	12	4	1	7	18	20	13
11	Holstebro	12	4	1	7	18	30	13
12	Ringsted IF	12	1	2	9	16	35	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Næsby	Holbæk
Vanløse	2-2 D	0-0 D
Holstebro	4-0 W	4-0 W
Ringsted IF	2-1 W	5-2 W
FC Helsingor	1-1 D	1-5 L
ASA Aarhus	0-1 L	2-1 W
Horsholm-Usserod IK	4-3 W	1-3 L
Ishoj	5-1 W	4-0 W
Bronshoj BK	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Holbæk (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Næsby

DWLWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
03/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
26/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-1	13	4	D
13/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	2-2	2-3	7	2	L
22/08	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Holbæk

WWWWLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
10/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
03/10	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
25/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-4	1-5	4	5	L
18/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	3-1	5-2	2	4	W
13/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
05/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	0	3	W
29/08	Næsby Denmark Division 3	2-2	3-2	2	2	W
21/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Næsby vs Holbæk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Holbæk win (46%). Probabilities: Næsby 30%, draw 24%, Holbæk 46%.

How many goals are expected in Næsby vs Holbæk?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Næsby 1.61 · Holbæk 2.01), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Næsby vs Holbæk?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.