Football · Denmark Division 3 · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Vanløse vs ASA Aarhus

Team pages: Vanløse · ASA Aarhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Vanløse1.58

ASA Aarhus1.09

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Vanløse Draw ASA Aarhus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vanløse 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDDWDD

ASA Aarhus 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Vanløse 0–1 ASA Aarhus (1 last)

ASA Aarhus2-1Vanløse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vanløse 1520 · ASA Aarhus 1457

	Vanløse	Draw	ASA Aarhus
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vanløse (rating 1520 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vanløse	ASA Aarhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:35 +3’	1.83	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vanløse 0–0–1 ASA Aarhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Denmark Division 3	ASA Aarhus	2-1 HT 0-1	Vanløse

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	12	8	2	2	30	18	26
2	Bronshoj BK	12	7	4	1	26	13	25
3	Vanløse	12	5	6	1	18	11	21
4	FC Helsingor	12	6	2	4	20	16	20
5	Næsby	12	5	3	4	22	18	18
6	Horsholm-Usserod IK	12	4	4	4	25	22	16
7	ASA Aarhus	12	5	1	6	16	18	16
8	Ishoj	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
9	Frem	12	3	4	5	20	20	13
10	Sundby	12	4	1	7	18	20	13
11	Holstebro	12	4	1	7	18	30	13
12	Ringsted IF	12	1	2	9	16	35	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vanløse	ASA Aarhus
Næsby	2-2 D	1-0 W
Holbæk	0-0 D	1-2 L
Sundby	1-0 W	1-2 L
Bronshoj BK	1-1 D	1-5 L
Horsholm-Usserod IK	1-1 D	2-1 W
Holstebro	2-1 W	4-0 W
Frem	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vanløse (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vanløse

LWDWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
10/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
03/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
26/09	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
19/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
05/09	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Frem Denmark Division 3	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

ASA Aarhus

WLWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
10/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
03/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
26/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
19/09	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-5	1	3	L
13/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
28/08	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
22/08	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vanløse vs ASA Aarhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vanløse win (48%). Probabilities: Vanløse 48%, draw 26%, ASA Aarhus 26%.

How many goals are expected in Vanløse vs ASA Aarhus?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Vanløse 1.58 · ASA Aarhus 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vanløse vs ASA Aarhus?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.