Football · Denmark Division 3 · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Næsby vs ASA Aarhus

Team pages: Næsby · ASA Aarhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Næsby1.88

ASA Aarhus1.29

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Næsby Draw ASA Aarhus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Næsby 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWLDLL

ASA Aarhus 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Næsby 0–1 ASA Aarhus (1 last)

ASA Aarhus1-0Næsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Næsby 1467 · ASA Aarhus 1462

	Næsby	Draw	ASA Aarhus
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	51%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Næsby	ASA Aarhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +1’	1.75	4.00	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Næsby 0–0–1 ASA Aarhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Denmark Division 3	ASA Aarhus	1-0 HT 1-0	Næsby

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	14	9	2	3	32	20	29
2	Bronshoj BK	14	8	4	2	29	17	28
3	Vanløse	14	7	6	1	20	11	27
4	FC Helsingor	14	7	3	4	22	17	24
5	Horsholm-Usserod IK	14	6	4	4	32	24	22
6	Næsby	14	5	3	6	24	22	18
7	Ishoj	14	5	3	6	17	22	18
8	ASA Aarhus	14	5	2	7	18	21	17
9	Sundby	14	5	1	8	23	24	16
10	Frem	14	3	6	5	23	23	15
11	Holstebro	14	4	1	9	18	37	13
12	Ringsted IF	14	1	3	10	17	37	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Næsby	ASA Aarhus
Bronshoj BK	1-2 L	1-5 L
Holbæk	1-2 L	1-2 L
Vanløse	2-2 D	0-1 L
Frem	0-2 L	2-2 D
Holstebro	4-0 W	4-0 W
FC Helsingor	1-1 D	1-2 L
Horsholm-Usserod IK	4-3 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Næsby (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Næsby

LWLDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
24/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
17/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
03/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
26/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-1	13	4	D
13/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	2-2	2-3	7	2	L

ASA Aarhus

WLWLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
24/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
17/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
10/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
03/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
26/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
19/09	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-5	1	3	L
13/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
28/08	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Næsby vs ASA Aarhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Næsby win (51%). Probabilities: Næsby 51%, draw 23%, ASA Aarhus 26%.

How many goals are expected in Næsby vs ASA Aarhus?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Næsby 1.88 · ASA Aarhus 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Næsby vs ASA Aarhus?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.