Football · Denmark Division 3 · 14/11, 14:00

Prediction: Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Næsby

Team pages: Horsholm-Usserod IK · Næsby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

Horsholm-Usserod IK2.03

Næsby2

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Horsholm-Usserod IK Draw Næsby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsholm-Usserod IK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWDWWW

Næsby 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Horsholm-Usserod IK 0–1–4 Næsby (5 last)

Næsby4-3Horsholm-Usserod IK
Horsholm-Usserod IK2-4Næsby
Næsby5-0Horsholm-Usserod IK
Næsby4-1Horsholm-Usserod IK
Horsholm-Usserod IK1-1Næsby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsholm-Usserod IK 1532 · Næsby 1511

	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Draw	Næsby
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Næsby: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Næsby
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:55 +12’	2.30	3.90	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsholm-Usserod IK 0–1–4 Næsby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Denmark Division 3	Næsby	4-3 HT 2-0	Horsholm-Usserod IK
13/06/26 Denmark Division 3	Horsholm-Usserod IK	2-4 HT 1-2	Næsby
09/05/26 Denmark Division 3	Næsby	5-0 HT 1-0	Horsholm-Usserod IK
28/03/26 Denmark Division 3	Næsby	4-1 HT 1-1	Horsholm-Usserod IK
30/08/25 Denmark Division 3	Horsholm-Usserod IK	1-1 HT 1-0	Næsby

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bronshoj BK	15	9	4	2	31	18	31
2	Holbæk	15	9	2	4	33	22	29
3	Vanløse	15	7	6	2	21	13	27
4	Horsholm-Usserod IK	15	7	4	4	34	25	25
5	FC Helsingor	15	7	4	4	23	18	25
6	Næsby	15	6	3	6	29	23	21
7	Frem	15	4	6	5	26	24	18
8	Ishoj	15	5	3	7	18	25	18
9	Sundby	15	5	2	8	24	25	17
10	ASA Aarhus	15	5	2	8	19	26	17
11	Holstebro	15	5	1	9	20	38	16
12	Ringsted IF	15	1	3	11	18	39	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsholm-Usserod IK	Næsby
Vanløse	2-1 W	2-2 D
Holstebro	4-0 W	4-0 W
Frem	1-1 D	0-2 L
Ringsted IF	4-2 W	2-1 W
FC Helsingor	3-1 W	1-1 D
ASA Aarhus	1-2 L	5-1 W
Holbæk	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Horsholm-Usserod IK (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsholm-Usserod IK

LWDLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
31/10	Sundby Denmark Division 3	1-1	3-2	11	3	W
24/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
17/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-0	1-1	10	5	D
10/10	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	4-2	4-2	3	3	W
03/10	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
26/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
19/09	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-2	3-4	–	–	L

Næsby

WLDWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	2-0	5-1	5	4	W
31/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
24/10	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
17/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
03/10	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
26/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-1	13	4	D
13/09	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Næsby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsholm-Usserod IK win (39%). Probabilities: Horsholm-Usserod IK 39%, draw 23%, Næsby 38%.

How many goals are expected in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Næsby?

The model expects 4.02 goals (Horsholm-Usserod IK 2.03 · Næsby 2), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsholm-Usserod IK vs Næsby?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.