Football · Denmark Division 3 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Holbæk vs Holstebro

Team pages: Holbæk · Holstebro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Holbæk2.68

Holstebro1.3

1X2

66% 19% 16%

Holbæk Draw Holstebro

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Holbæk 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLWD

Holstebro 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Holbæk 5–1–0 Holstebro (6 last)

Holstebro2-2Holbæk
Holbæk2-1Holstebro
Holstebro0-1Holbæk
Holbæk2-1Holstebro
Holstebro0-1Holbæk
Holbæk3-0Holstebro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holbæk 1547 · Holstebro 1435

	Holbæk	Draw	Holstebro
Our model	66%	18%	16%
Market	66%	19%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holbæk (rating 1547 vs 1435).
H2H favours Holbæk: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holbæk	Holstebro
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3	3.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +10’	1.36	4.75	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Holbæk 5–1–0 Holstebro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Denmark Division 3	Holstebro	2-2 HT 1-1	Holbæk
12/04/25 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	2-1 HT 0-0	Holstebro
05/10/24 Denmark Division 3	Holstebro	0-1 HT 0-0	Holbæk
25/09/24 Denmark Cup	Holbæk	2-1 HT 1-0	Holstebro
01/04/24 Denmark Division 3	Holstebro	0-1 HT 0-0	Holbæk
16/09/23 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	3-0 HT 2-0	Holstebro

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Holbæk	11	7	2	2	26	18	23
2	Bronshoj BK	11	6	4	1	22	12	22
3	Vanløse	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	FC Helsingor	11	6	2	3	20	15	20
5	Næsby	11	5	2	4	20	16	17
6	ASA Aarhus	11	5	1	5	15	16	16
7	Horsholm-Usserod IK	11	4	3	4	24	21	15
8	Holstebro	11	4	1	6	18	26	13
9	Frem	11	3	3	5	19	19	12
10	Ishoj	11	3	2	6	12	21	11
11	Sundby	11	3	1	7	16	19	10
12	Ringsted IF	11	1	2	8	15	31	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holbæk	Holstebro
Vanløse	0-0 D	1-2 L
ASA Aarhus	2-1 W	0-4 L
FC Helsingor	1-5 L	2-1 W
Ringsted IF	5-2 W	4-0 W
Ishoj	4-0 W	1-3 L
Næsby	3-2 W	0-4 L
Bronshoj BK	4-1 W	2-4 L
Sundby	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Holbæk (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holbæk

DWWWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
03/10	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
25/09	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	0-4	1-5	4	5	L
18/09	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	3-1	5-2	2	4	W
13/09	Horsholm-Usserod IK Denmark Division 3	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
05/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	0	3	W
29/08	Næsby Denmark Division 3	2-2	3-2	2	2	W
21/08	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Holstebro Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Holstebro

DWWLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bronshoj BK Denmark Division 3	2-2	2-4	0	4	L
03/10	Næsby Denmark Division 3	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
26/09	Ishoj Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-3	5	1	L
19/09	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
13/09	Frem Denmark Division 3	0-0	3-2	8	1	W
05/09	Vanløse Denmark Division 3	1-2	1-2	7	6	L
28/08	ASA Aarhus Denmark Division 3	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
22/08	FC Helsingor Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Ringsted IF Denmark Division 3	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/08	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holbæk vs Holstebro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holbæk win (66%). Probabilities: Holbæk 66%, draw 19%, Holstebro 16%.

How many goals are expected in Holbæk vs Holstebro?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Holbæk 2.68 · Holstebro 1.3), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Holbæk vs Holstebro?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.