Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 24/09, 04:00

Prediction: Xelaju vs Antigua GFC

Team pages: Xelaju · Antigua GFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Xelaju1.63

Antigua GFC1.18

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Xelaju Draw Antigua GFC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Xelaju 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWDLD

Antigua GFC 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Xelaju 1–2–3 Antigua GFC (6 last)

Xelaju1-1Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC1-1Xelaju
Antigua GFC2-0Xelaju
Xelaju1-0Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC2-1Xelaju
Xelaju0-2Antigua GFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Xelaju 1528 · Antigua GFC 1527

	Xelaju	Draw	Antigua GFC
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Antigua GFC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Xelaju	Antigua GFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.7	6.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.08
X	3.30 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.02 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +2’	2.00	3.30	3.20
15:04 +3’	2.00	3.00▼	3.20
23:54 +8’	2.00	3.10▲	3.40▲
15:00 +4’	2.05▲	3.10	3.25▼
18:03 +4’	1.95▼	3.10	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +21’	2.24	2.56	3.93
14:55 +11’	2.26▲	2.55▼	3.89▼
17:55 +12’	2.25▼	2.56▲	3.92▲
19:03 +5’	2.09▼	2.70▲	4.12▲
14:30 +35’	2.08▼	2.71▲	4.11▼
16:04 +3’	2.08	2.76▲	4.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Xelaju 1–2–3 Antigua GFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-1 HT 1-1	Antigua GFC
26/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	1-1 HT 1-1	Xelaju
12/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 0-0	Xelaju
09/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-0 HT 0-0	Antigua GFC
06/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-1 HT 0-1	Xelaju
25/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	0-2 HT 0-2	Antigua GFC

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	8	7	0	1	19	8	21
2	CSD Municipal	9	6	2	1	13	5	20
3	Guastatoya	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Deportivo San Pedro	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
5	Deportivo Mixco	10	4	1	5	14	17	13
6	Marquense	10	4	1	5	10	14	13
7	Xelaju	9	3	3	3	16	11	12
8	Aurora	10	4	0	6	14	16	12
9	Malacateco	10	3	3	4	12	16	12
10	CSD Comunicaciones	10	2	3	5	10	15	9
11	Coban Imperial	10	1	4	5	10	16	7
12	Suchitepequez	10	1	3	6	11	20	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Xelaju	Antigua GFC
Suchitepequez	2-2 D	3-2 W
Guastatoya	1-2 L	2-0 W
Coban Imperial	0-0 D	2-0 W
Marquense	4-0 W	3-1 W
Malacateco	2-2 D	2-0 W
Aurora	3-1 W	2-1 W
Deportivo San Pedro	0-1 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Antigua GFC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Xelaju

LLWDLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
14/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
06/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	5	W
31/08	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	4-1	5	4	W
23/08	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	4	D
04/08	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
25/07	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
24/05	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	9	6	L

Antigua GFC

WLWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	8	8	W
11/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/09	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	3-4	4	6	L
23/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
19/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	9	W
09/08	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
25/07	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	7	7	L
30/04	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-2	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Xelaju vs Antigua GFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Xelaju win (46%). Probabilities: Xelaju 46%, draw 28%, Antigua GFC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Xelaju vs Antigua GFC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Xelaju 1.63 · Antigua GFC 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Xelaju vs Antigua GFC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.