Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 27/09, 21:00

Prediction: Coban Imperial vs Aurora

Team pages: Coban Imperial · Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Coban Imperial1.66

Aurora0.77

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Coban Imperial Draw Aurora

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Coban Imperial 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLDDD

Aurora 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Coban Imperial 1–2–1 Aurora (4 last)

Coban Imperial0-0Aurora
Aurora1-0Coban Imperial
Coban Imperial2-0Aurora
Aurora1-1Coban Imperial

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coban Imperial 1451 · Aurora 1477

	Coban Imperial	Draw	Aurora
Our model	58%	26%	16%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coban Imperial	Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:48 +17’	1.53	3.70	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coban Imperial 1–2–1 Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Coban Imperial	0-0 HT 0-0	Aurora
15/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-0 HT 0-0	Coban Imperial
02/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Coban Imperial	2-0 HT 1-0	Aurora
24/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	1-1 HT 0-1	Coban Imperial

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	8	7	0	1	19	8	21
2	CSD Municipal	9	6	2	1	13	5	20
3	Guastatoya	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
4	Deportivo San Pedro	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
5	Deportivo Mixco	10	4	1	5	14	17	13
6	Marquense	10	4	1	5	10	14	13
7	Xelaju	9	3	3	3	16	11	12
8	Aurora	10	4	0	6	14	16	12
9	Malacateco	10	3	3	4	12	16	12
10	CSD Comunicaciones	10	2	3	5	10	15	9
11	Coban Imperial	10	1	4	5	10	16	7
12	Suchitepequez	10	1	3	6	11	20	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coban Imperial	Aurora
Deportivo San Pedro	1-1 D	1-2 L
CSD Comunicaciones	2-2 D	3-1 W
Xelaju	0-0 D	1-3 L
Guastatoya	0-1 L	0-1 L
Suchitepequez	2-3 L	3-2 W
Marquense	1-2 L	1-0 W
Antigua GFC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Deportivo Mixco	3-2 W	2-3 L
CSD Municipal	0-2 L	1-2 L
Malacateco	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Aurora (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coban Imperial

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
13/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	3	6	D
11/09	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
29/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-2	2-3	5	6	L
24/08	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	2	9	L
15/08	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	8	9	W
10/08	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
26/07	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	0	6	D

Aurora

LLWLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	2-3	7	8	L
10/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
05/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
08/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	3-1	6	6	W
04/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
25/07	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coban Imperial vs Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coban Imperial win (58%). Probabilities: Coban Imperial 58%, draw 25%, Aurora 17%.

How many goals are expected in Coban Imperial vs Aurora?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Coban Imperial 1.66 · Aurora 0.77), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Coban Imperial vs Aurora?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.