Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 24/10, 22:00
Prediction: Xelaju vs CSD Municipal
Team pages: Xelaju · CSD Municipal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Xelaju1.38
CSD Municipal1.13
1X2
Xelaju
Draw
CSD Municipal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Xelaju
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
CSD Municipal
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Xelaju
1–1–4
CSD Municipal
(6 last)
- CSD Municipal2-0Xelaju
- Xelaju1-2CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal4-1Xelaju
- Xelaju3-1CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju1-1CSD Municipal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xelaju 1488 · CSD Municipal 1549
| Xelaju | Draw | CSD Municipal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1488 vs 1549).
- H2H favours CSD Municipal: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Xelaju | CSD Municipal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.4 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.9 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xelaju 1–1–4 CSD Municipal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 24/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 1-2 HT 1-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 17/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Xelaju |
| 20/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 3-1 HT 0-1 | CSD Municipal |
| 29/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 03/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CSD Municipal |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Mixco | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 24 |
| 5 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 21 |
| 9 | Malacateco | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 18 |
| 10 | Coban Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 16 |
| 11 | CSD Comunicaciones | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 14 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Xelaju | CSD Municipal |
|---|---|---|
| Antigua GFC | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Malacateco | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Aurora | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Suchitepequez | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Guastatoya | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Coban Imperial | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Marquense | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 5 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xelaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/10 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 14/09 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
CSD Municipal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 15/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 10/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xelaju vs CSD Municipal?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Xelaju win (42%). Probabilities: Xelaju 42%, draw 29%, CSD Municipal 30%.
How many goals are expected in Xelaju vs CSD Municipal?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Xelaju 1.38 · CSD Municipal 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Xelaju vs CSD Municipal?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.