Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 30/10, 03:10
Prediction: Marquense vs Guastatoya
Team pages: Marquense · Guastatoya
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Marquense1.52
Guastatoya1.02
1X2
Marquense
Draw
Guastatoya
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Marquense
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Guastatoya
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marquense
1–1–4
Guastatoya
(6 last)
- Guastatoya1-2Marquense
- Guastatoya4-0Marquense
- Marquense2-2Guastatoya
- Guastatoya5-0Marquense
- Marquense0-2Guastatoya
- Guastatoya1-0Marquense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marquense 1496 · Guastatoya 1528
| Marquense | Draw | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Guastatoya: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marquense | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 7.1 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.5 | 6.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marquense 1–1–4 Guastatoya
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Marquense |
| 26/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Marquense |
| 05/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Guastatoya |
| 24/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Marquense |
| 18/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Guastatoya |
| 30/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Marquense |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Deportivo Mixco | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 27 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 27 |
| 5 | Xelaju | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 22 |
| 9 | Coban Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 19 |
| 11 | CSD Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 17 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 9 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marquense | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|
| Coban Imperial | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Suchitepequez | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Mixco | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| CSD Municipal | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Antigua GFC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Malacateco | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Aurora | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Xelaju | 0-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 3 L | 5 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Marquense (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/10 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 15/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 12/10 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
Guastatoya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 19/10 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 15/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 05/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marquense vs Guastatoya?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marquense win (47%). Probabilities: Marquense 47%, draw 28%, Guastatoya 24%.
How many goals are expected in Marquense vs Guastatoya?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Marquense 1.52 · Guastatoya 1.02), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Marquense vs Guastatoya?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.