Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 03/11, 22:00
Prediction: Xelaju vs Marquense
Team pages: Xelaju · Marquense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Xelaju1.85
Marquense0.79
1X2
Xelaju
Draw
Marquense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Xelaju
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Marquense
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Xelaju
3–1–2
Marquense
(6 last)
- Marquense0-4Xelaju
- Xelaju2-0Marquense
- Marquense1-1Xelaju
- Marquense1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju4-2Marquense
- Marquense1-0Xelaju
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xelaju 1517 · Marquense 1499
| Xelaju | Draw | Marquense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Xelaju: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Xelaju | Marquense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 2.5 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 1.2 | 4.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xelaju 3–1–2 Marquense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Xelaju |
| 04/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Marquense |
| 01/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Xelaju |
| 02/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 16/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Marquense |
| 06/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Mixco | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 28 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo San Pedro | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Xelaju | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 25 |
| 7 | Aurora | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 25 |
| 8 | Coban Imperial | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 27 | 25 |
| 9 | Marquense | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 25 |
| 10 | CSD Comunicaciones | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 28 | 20 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 36 | 12 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Xelaju | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Mixco | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| CSD Municipal | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Antigua GFC | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Malacateco | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Aurora | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Suchitepequez | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Guastatoya | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Marquense (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xelaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 11 | D |
| 24/10 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 20/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/10 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 14/09 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Marquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 25/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/10 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 15/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 12/10 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xelaju vs Marquense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Xelaju win (62%). Probabilities: Xelaju 62%, draw 24%, Marquense 15%.
How many goals are expected in Xelaju vs Marquense?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Xelaju 1.85 · Marquense 0.79), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Xelaju vs Marquense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.