Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 01/11, 18:00

Prediction: Aurora vs Antigua GFC

Team pages: Aurora · Antigua GFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Aurora1.44

Antigua GFC1.42

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Aurora Draw Antigua GFC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aurora 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWWDW

Antigua GFC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWDWLW

Head-to-head

Aurora 1–5 Antigua GFC (6 last)

Antigua GFC2-1Aurora
Aurora0-2Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC2-0Aurora
Antigua GFC4-2Aurora
Aurora0-1Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC1-2Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aurora 1491 · Antigua GFC 1539

	Aurora	Draw	Antigua GFC
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	37%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Antigua GFC (rating 1491 vs 1539).
H2H favours Antigua GFC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aurora	Antigua GFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:00 +4’	2.45	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +21’	2.55	3.03	2.75
10:13 +37’	2.53▼	3.21▲	2.64▼
14:25 +9’	2.40▼	3.15▼	2.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aurora 1–0–5 Antigua GFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-1 HT 0-0	Aurora
04/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	0-2 HT 0-0	Antigua GFC
19/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 2-0	Aurora
18/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	4-2 HT 2-1	Aurora
14/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	0-1 HT 0-0	Antigua GFC
26/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	1-2 HT 1-0	Aurora

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	17	10	2	5	29	21	32
2	CSD Municipal	17	8	6	3	23	12	30
3	Deportivo Mixco	17	8	4	5	29	23	28
4	Guastatoya	17	8	4	5	22	20	28
5	Xelaju	17	7	4	6	28	20	25
6	Aurora	17	8	1	8	28	26	25
7	Marquense	17	7	4	6	18	21	25
8	Deportivo San Pedro	17	6	5	6	20	20	23
9	Coban Imperial	17	6	4	7	24	26	22
10	Malacateco	17	5	4	8	18	25	19
11	CSD Comunicaciones	17	5	2	10	19	27	17
12	Suchitepequez	17	1	6	10	19	36	9

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aurora	Antigua GFC
Suchitepequez	2-2 D	3-2 W
Deportivo San Pedro	3-1 W	1-0 W
CSD Comunicaciones	2-1 W	0-1 L
Xelaju	2-1 W	3-0 W
Guastatoya	1-2 L	1-1 D
Coban Imperial	2-3 L	2-1 W
Marquense	1-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Mixco	2-3 L	1-3 L
CSD Municipal	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Antigua GFC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aurora

LLWLLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/10	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
18/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
15/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
10/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
05/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
19/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	2-3	7	8	L
10/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Antigua GFC

WLLLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
25/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
20/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
15/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/10	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
09/10	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
03/10	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
27/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
24/09	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-4	8	4	L
15/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	8	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aurora vs Antigua GFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aurora win (37%). Probabilities: Aurora 37%, draw 27%, Antigua GFC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Aurora vs Antigua GFC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Aurora 1.44 · Antigua GFC 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aurora vs Antigua GFC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.