Football · Spain La Liga · 15/08, 21:30
Prediction: Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano
Team pages: Sevilla · Rayo Vallecano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Sevilla1.19
Rayo Vallecano1.01
1X2
Sevilla
Draw
Rayo Vallecano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sevilla
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sevilla
3–3–0
Rayo Vallecano
(6 last)
- Sevilla1-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0-1Sevilla
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Sevilla
- Sevilla1-0Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1-2Sevilla
- Sevilla2-2Rayo Vallecano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sevilla 1539 · Rayo Vallecano 1498
| Sevilla | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 32% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sevilla (rating 1539 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Sevilla: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 3–3–0 Rayo Vallecano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 28/09/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sevilla |
| 01/03/25 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sevilla |
| 24/11/24 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 05/02/24 Spain La Liga | Rayo Vallecano | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sevilla |
| 07/10/23 Spain La Liga | Sevilla | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Deportivo A Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sevilla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Bayer Leverkusen Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Utrecht Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | NEC Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | Cordoba Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | Cracovia Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | Juventud Torremolinos CF Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
Rayo Vallecano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ipswich Elite Club Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Charleroi Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/07 | Feyenoord Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Hearts Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/05 | Crystal Palace UEFA Conference League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Girona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Strasbourg UEFA Conference League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sevilla win (39%). Probabilities: Sevilla 39%, draw 32%, Rayo Vallecano 30%.
How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Sevilla 1.19 · Rayo Vallecano 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.