Football · Spain La Liga · 22/08, 17:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · Sevilla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Athletic Bilbao1.82

Sevilla0.93

1X2

57% 26% 17%

Athletic Bilbao Draw Sevilla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWDWWL

Sevilla 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao 4–1–1 Sevilla (6 last)

Sevilla2-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao3-2Sevilla
Sevilla0-1Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-1Sevilla
Athletic Bilbao2-0Sevilla
Sevilla0-2Athletic Bilbao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao 1538 · Sevilla 1541

	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Sevilla
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Bilbao: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao	Sevilla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.2	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +2’	1.65	3.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 4–1–1 Sevilla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	2-1 HT 1-1	Athletic Bilbao
17/08/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	3-2 HT 2-0	Sevilla
16/03/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
29/09/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-1 HT 1-0	Sevilla
19/05/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-0 HT 2-0	Sevilla
04/01/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	0-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao	Sevilla
Real Madrid	2-4 L	0-1 L
Celta Vigo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Athletic Bilbao

LDLWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Marseille Elite Club Friendlies	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
01/08	Burgos Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
29/07	Racing Santander Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
25/07	Eibar Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
22/07	Sestao River Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	12	0	W
18/07	Leioa Europe Friendlies	7-0	11-0	4	0	W
15/07	CD Derio Europe Friendlies	0-0	3-0	9	0	W
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L

Sevilla

WLLWLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bayer Leverkusen Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
02/08	FC Utrecht Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
31/07	NEC Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
26/07	AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
23/07	Cordoba Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	Cracovia Krakow Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
11/07	Juventud Torremolinos CF Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao win (57%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 57%, draw 26%, Sevilla 17%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Athletic Bilbao 1.82 · Sevilla 0.93), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.