Football · Spain La Liga · 22/08, 21:30

Prediction: Espanyol vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Espanyol · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Espanyol0.98

Real Madrid1.85

1X2

19% 24% 57%

Espanyol Draw Real Madrid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Espanyol 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDDDL

Real Madrid 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Espanyol 1–5 Real Madrid (6 last)

Espanyol0-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid2-0Espanyol
Espanyol1-0Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-1Espanyol
Real Madrid3-1Espanyol
Espanyol1-3Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Espanyol 1508 · Real Madrid 1584

	Espanyol	Draw	Real Madrid
Our model	19%	25%	57%
Market	19%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1508 vs 1584).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Espanyol	Real Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.05

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +10’	4.75	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Espanyol 1–0–5 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
20/09/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	2-0 HT 1-0	Espanyol
01/02/25 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
21/09/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-1 HT 0-0	Espanyol
11/03/23 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	3-1 HT 2-1	Espanyol
28/08/22 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	1-3 HT 1-1	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Espanyol	Real Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	2-0 W	4-2 W
Sevilla	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Espanyol

LWWDWWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Coventry Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-3	3	0	L
01/08	Middlesbrough Europe Friendlies	2-2	3-3	3	5	D
29/07	Burnley Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
25/07	Sabadell Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
21/07	Pau Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-0	3	3	W
18/07	UE Olot Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	9	0	W
23/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	8	0	W
09/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L

Real Madrid

LWDWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ferencvarosi TC Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
01/08	Fiorentina Elite Club Friendlies	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
23/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
17/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
03/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
24/04	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/04	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
15/04	Bayern Munich UEFA Champions League	3-2	3-4	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid win (57%). Probabilities: Espanyol 19%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 57%.

How many goals are expected in Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Espanyol 0.98 · Real Madrid 1.85), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Real Madrid?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.