Football · Spain La Liga · 22/08, 19:30

Prediction: Valencia vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Valencia · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Valencia1.51

Celta Vigo1.28

1X2

41% 28% 31%

Valencia Draw Celta Vigo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Valencia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLWDL

Celta Vigo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDWWD

Head-to-head

Valencia 1–1–4 Celta Vigo (6 last)

Valencia2-3Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo4-1Valencia
Valencia2-1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo3-1Valencia
Celta Vigo2-2Valencia
Valencia1-3Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valencia 1485 · Celta Vigo 1555

	Valencia	Draw	Celta Vigo
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celta Vigo (rating 1485 vs 1555).
H2H favours Celta Vigo: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valencia	Celta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/56/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.6	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:34	2.30	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 1–1–4 Celta Vigo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Spain La Liga	Valencia	2-3 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
03/01/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	4-1 HT 1-0	Valencia
02/02/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	2-1 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
23/08/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	3-1 HT 2-1	Valencia
26/05/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-2 HT 0-1	Valencia
17/01/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Valencia	1-3 HT 1-2	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Valencia

WDWWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Newcastle Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	Stoke Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
28/07	Derby Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	CD Castellon Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
22/07	Eldense Europe Friendlies	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
18/07	Petro Luanda Europe Friendlies	–	1-3	0	0	L
23/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
17/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-1	4-3	2	5	W
14/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
10/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Celta Vigo

LWWLDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Napoli Elite Club Friendlies	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	Sassuolo Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	4-1	7	1	W
25/07	Sporting Gijon Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
18/07	Braga Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
23/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
17/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
12/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
09/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	0	3	W
03/05	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
26/04	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valencia win (41%). Probabilities: Valencia 41%, draw 28%, Celta Vigo 31%.

How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Valencia 1.51 · Celta Vigo 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.