Football · Spain La Liga · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao · Getafe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Athletic Bilbao1.4

Getafe0.63

1X2

56% 27% 17%

Athletic Bilbao Draw Getafe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWDD

Getafe 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDDLWL

Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao 2–2–2 Getafe (6 last)

Getafe2-0Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao0-1Getafe
Getafe0-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao1-1Getafe
Getafe0-2Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao2-2Getafe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao 1498 · Getafe 1490

	Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Getafe
Our model	54%	30%	16%
Market	57%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao	Getafe
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.5	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.80

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 01:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.68
X	3.50 → 3.80▲	Pinn 4.17 ★
2	5.25 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +4’	1.67	3.50	5.25
03:11 +5’	1.53▼	3.75▲	6.25▲
12:22 +10’	1.57▲	3.90▲	5.25▼
22:19 +10’	1.60▲	3.90	5.00▼
01:27 +4’	1.61▲	3.80▼	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:25 +2’	1.55	3.83	6.21
22:44 +17’	1.58▲	3.85▲	5.72▼
23:26 +4’	1.58	4.03▲	5.74▲
13:44 +43’	1.61▲	4.05▲	5.31▼
12:26 +5’	1.63▲	4.06▲	5.11▼
20:37 +112’	1.65▲	4.04▼	5.03▼
08:14 +7’	1.66▲	4.01▼	4.95▼
17:03 +3’	1.65▼	4.03▲	4.98▲
20:37 +72’	1.64▼	4.06▲	5.07▲
22:25 +15’	1.67▲	4.12▲	4.72▼
23:03 +5’	1.66▼	4.13▲	4.74▲
00:54 +36’	1.68▲	4.20▲	4.49▼
02:04 +30’	1.67▼	4.19▼	4.58▲
04:57 +36’	1.68▲	4.13▼	4.60▲
08:08 +14’	1.70▲	4.15▲	4.44▼
12:05 +32’	1.68▼	4.17▲	4.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao 2–2–2 Getafe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Spain La Liga	Getafe	2-0 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao
25/10/25 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	0-1 HT 0-0	Getafe
15/05/25 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-2 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao
15/08/24 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	1-1 HT 1-0	Getafe
03/05/24 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-2 HT 0-1	Athletic Bilbao
27/09/23 Spain La Liga	Athletic Bilbao	2-2 HT 1-0	Getafe

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao	Getafe
CD Alaves	0-0 D	0-3 L
Elche	1-1 D	0-1 L
Celta Vigo	2-0 W	1-1 D
Barcelona	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao

LLDLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
12/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
05/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	1	W
30/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
27/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
22/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	1-3	10	7	L
23/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
17/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
13/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	9	0	L
10/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	13	5	L

Getafe

LWLWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
20/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
23/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
15/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	3	8	L
23/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
17/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao win (56%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao 56%, draw 27%, Getafe 17%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Athletic Bilbao 1.4 · Getafe 0.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.