Football · Spain La Liga · 24/10, 18:30
Prediction: Valencia vs Villarreal
Team pages: Valencia · Villarreal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Valencia1.26
Villarreal1.61
1X2
Valencia
Draw
Villarreal
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Valencia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Villarreal
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valencia
1–2–3
Villarreal
(6 last)
- Villarreal2-1Valencia
- Valencia0-2Villarreal
- Villarreal1-1Valencia
- Valencia1-1Villarreal
- Villarreal1-0Valencia
- Valencia3-1Villarreal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valencia 1435 · Villarreal 1541
| Valencia | Draw | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal (rating 1435 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Villarreal: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valencia | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 4 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 1–2–3 Villarreal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Valencia |
| 25/10/25 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Villarreal |
| 15/02/25 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Valencia |
| 31/08/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Villarreal |
| 17/03/24 Spain La Liga | Villarreal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Valencia |
| 02/01/24 Spain La Liga | Valencia | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Villarreal |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valencia | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| CD Alaves | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo A Coruna | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Real Betis | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valencia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 15/09 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Barcelona Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
Villarreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 20/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Villarreal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Villarreal win (44%). Probabilities: Valencia 29%, draw 27%, Villarreal 44%.
How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Villarreal?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Valencia 1.26 · Villarreal 1.61), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.