Football · Spain La Liga · 25/10, 18:30

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Levante

Team pages: Real Sociedad · Levante

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Real Sociedad2

Levante1.18

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Real Sociedad Draw Levante

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDWLWW

Levante 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWDLLD

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 3–1–2 Levante (6 last)

Real Sociedad2-0Levante
Levante1-1Real Sociedad
Levante2-1Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad1-0Levante
Real Sociedad1-0Levante
Levante2-1Real Sociedad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad 1454 · Levante 1477

	Real Sociedad	Draw	Levante
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Sociedad: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad	Levante
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.6	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.74
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.04 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +8’	1.70	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:25 +3’	1.68	4.06	4.46
23:27 +3’	1.69▲	4.11▲	4.53▲
20:03 +67’	1.75▲	4.02▼	4.28▼
20:37 +112’	1.74▼	4.04▲	4.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 3–1–2 Levante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-0 HT 1-0	Levante
20/12/25 Spain La Liga	Levante	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
06/05/22 Spain La Liga	Levante	2-1 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad
28/08/21 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	1-0 HT 1-0	Levante
07/03/21 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	1-0 HT 1-0	Levante
19/12/20 Spain La Liga	Levante	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Levante
Celta Vigo	0-0 D	3-2 W
Espanyol	2-1 W	0-3 L
Real Betis	0-1 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Levante (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad

LDLLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	5	W
20/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	9	3	L
07/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	6	W
03/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-2	3-4	3	5	L

Levante

WWLLDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	3-3	5	8	D
20/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
13/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	2-4	3	2	L
06/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L
23/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
17/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
12/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-1	3-2	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Levante?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad win (55%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 55%, draw 24%, Levante 21%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Levante?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Real Sociedad 2 · Levante 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Levante?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.