Football · Spain La Liga · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: Espanyol · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Espanyol1.25

Atletico Madrid1.93

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Espanyol Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Espanyol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDWLLD

Atletico Madrid 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Espanyol 1–4–1 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Atletico Madrid4-2Espanyol
Espanyol2-1Atletico Madrid
Espanyol1-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid0-0Espanyol
Espanyol3-3Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-1Espanyol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Espanyol 1475 · Atletico Madrid 1584

	Espanyol	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	23%	24%	52%
Market	23%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1475 vs 1584).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.2	2.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.05

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 04:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.36 ★
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.80
2	1.70 → 1.80▲	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:08 +4’	4.50	3.75	1.70
14:06 +8’	3.90▼	3.60▼	1.85▲
10:15 +5’	4.00▲	3.50▼	1.85
04:24 +19’	4.10▲	3.60▲	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:42 +30’	4.31	3.85	1.74
11:41 +32’	4.38▲	3.90▲	1.76▲
13:19 +54’	4.21▼	3.85▼	1.80▲
14:50 +28’	4.12▼	3.81▼	1.83▲
17:55 +27’	4.13▲	3.71▼	1.85▲
05:59 +37’	4.14▲	3.70▼	1.85
04:30 +13’	4.24▲	3.74▲	1.82▼
18:15 +74’	4.32▲	3.79▲	1.79▼
00:20 +47’	4.36▲	3.80▲	1.78▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Espanyol 1–4–1 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	4-2 HT 1-1	Espanyol
17/08/25 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
29/03/25 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Madrid
28/08/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	0-0 HT 0-0	Espanyol
24/05/23 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	3-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Madrid
06/11/22 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-1 HT 0-0	Espanyol

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
4	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	16
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
6	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
7	Deportivo A Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	10
9	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
10	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
11	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
13	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
15	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	5
19	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid
Malaga	1-1 D	2-0 W
Osasuna	2-0 W	4-0 W
Sevilla	1-1 D	3-1 W
Real Sociedad	1-2 L	3-0 W
Real Madrid	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Espanyol

WDWLLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
18/09	Elche Spain La Liga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
15/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
12/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
06/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
29/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
22/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
16/08	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
23/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W

Atletico Madrid

WLWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
20/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
13/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (52%). Probabilities: Espanyol 23%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 52%.

How many goals are expected in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Espanyol 1.25 · Atletico Madrid 1.93), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.