Football · Spain La Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · Elche

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Rayo Vallecano1.87

Elche1.13

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Rayo Vallecano Draw Elche

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWLWD

Elche 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLDLWD

Head-to-head

Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Elche (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano1-0Elche
Elche4-0Rayo Vallecano
Elche4-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano2-1Elche
Elche2-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano2-1Elche

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1518 · Elche 1472

	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Elche
Our model	54%	25%	22%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rayo Vallecano (rating 1518 vs 1472).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.70

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.76
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.81 ★
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.46

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +2’	1.70	3.75	4.50
04:10 +4’	1.75▲	3.60▼	4.33▼
14:25 +1’	1.75	3.70▲	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:24 +37’	1.75	3.77	4.39
23:27 +3’	1.76▲	3.81▲	4.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 3–0–3 Elche

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-0 HT 0-0	Elche
21/12/25 Spain La Liga	Elche	4-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
29/04/23 Spain La Liga	Elche	4-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
03/10/22 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	2-1 HT 1-1	Elche
18/02/22 Spain La Liga	Elche	2-1 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
17/10/21 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	2-1 HT 1-1	Elche

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	34	7	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	13	12	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	13
7	CD Alaves	8	3	2	3	12	8	11
8	Deportivo A Coruna	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	8	6	8
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	13	23	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11	15	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rayo Vallecano	Elche
Espanyol	2-1 W	3-1 W
Real Madrid	1-4 L	2-3 L
Racing Santander	3-2 W	2-3 L
Barcelona	2-5 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rayo Vallecano

DWWLDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D

Elche

WDDLLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
15/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
12/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
07/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-3	2-3	10	3	L
23/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
17/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
23/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
17/05	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Vallecano win (53%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 53%, draw 25%, Elche 22%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

The model expects 3 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.87 · Elche 1.13), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.