Football · Spain Segunda · 28/09, 20:30

Prediction: Leganes vs CD Castellon

Team pages: Leganes · CD Castellon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Leganes0.98

CD Castellon1.25

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Leganes Draw CD Castellon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Leganes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWWDLW

CD Castellon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Leganes 0–1–3 CD Castellon (4 last)

CD Castellon2-0Leganes
Leganes0-1CD Castellon
Leganes0-0CD Castellon
CD Castellon2-0Leganes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leganes 1508 · CD Castellon 1575

	Leganes	Draw	CD Castellon
Our model	28%	31%	41%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Castellon (rating 1508 vs 1575).
H2H favours CD Castellon: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leganes	CD Castellon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	3.9 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.32 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.35 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.26

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +5’	2.80	3.30	2.35
10:14 +6’	3.10▲	3.40▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:09 +308’	3.16	3.26	2.34
00:49 +31’	3.34▲	3.27▲	2.25▼
14:25 +3’	3.32▼	3.26▼	2.26▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leganes 0–1–3 CD Castellon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	2-0 HT 1-0	Leganes
29/09/25 Spain Segunda	Leganes	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Castellon
06/03/21 Spain Segunda	Leganes	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Castellon
04/10/20 Spain Segunda	CD Castellon	2-0 HT 1-0	Leganes

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Castellon	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Eibar	6	5	0	1	12	4	15
3	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	8	2	13
4	Almeria	6	4	0	2	10	4	12
5	Burgos	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
6	Sabadell	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	Leganes	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
8	Girona	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
9	Sporting Gijon	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
10	Las Palmas	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
11	Tenerife	6	3	1	2	7	8	10
12	Real Sociedad B	6	2	2	2	8	7	8
13	Oviedo	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
14	Granada	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
15	Celta Fortuna	6	2	1	3	7	10	7
16	Cordoba	6	2	0	4	9	13	6
17	Eldense	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
18	Valladolid	6	1	2	3	3	8	5
19	Cadiz	6	0	3	3	6	9	3
20	FC Andorra	6	1	0	5	9	13	3
21	Albacete	6	0	1	5	4	10	1
22	AD Ceuta FC	6	0	1	5	3	16	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leganes	CD Castellon
Tenerife	0-2 L	5-0 W
Girona	1-1 D	2-1 W
Huesca	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Castellon (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leganes

LDLWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Granada Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	6	6	W
13/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/09	Las Palmas Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Eldense Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
22/08	Oviedo Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/08	Girona Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
31/05	Mirandes Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
24/05	Cadiz Spain Segunda	0-1	0-3	6	9	L
18/05	Huesca Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-1	1-2	5	8	L

CD Castellon

WWDLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Tenerife Spain Segunda	3-0	5-0	0	2	W
12/09	Girona Spain Segunda	0-1	2-1	11	7	W
06/09	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
31/08	Celta Fortuna Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/08	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
09/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
06/06	Almeria Spain Segunda	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
31/05	Eibar Spain Segunda	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
24/05	Huesca Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leganes vs CD Castellon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Castellon win (42%). Probabilities: Leganes 29%, draw 29%, CD Castellon 42%.

How many goals are expected in Leganes vs CD Castellon?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Leganes 0.98 · CD Castellon 1.25), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leganes vs CD Castellon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.