Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 11/07, 22:30

Prediction: Sporting Cristal vs Bentin Tacna Heroica

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Sporting Cristal1.96
Bentin Tacna Heroica0.98
1X2
59% 23% 18%
Sporting Cristal Draw Bentin Tacna Heroica
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Cristal 3-2-5 (W-D-L)
LDLLWLLDWW
Bentin Tacna Heroica 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
DWWDLDLWWL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Cristal 1499 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 1510
Sporting CristalDrawBentin Tacna Heroica
Our model59%24%17%
Market60%22%18%
Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Sporting CristalBentin Tacna Heroica
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.71.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.60.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/40/30%40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 5.32.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.8 / 0.44.5 / 0.3

Standings · Peru Copa de la Liga · Copa de La Liga 2026, Group J

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Sporting Cristal 3210 527
2 Comerciantes FC 3120 215
3 Union Comercio 3102 343
4 CD Estudiantil CNI 3012 251

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSporting CristalBentin Tacna Heroica
CD Estudiantil CNI 2-1 W 3-1 W
Comerciantes FC 1-1 D 1-1 D
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 0 L 1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bentin Tacna Heroica (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Cristal

LDLLWLLDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
27/06 Union Comercio
Peru Copa de la Liga
0-0 2-0 42 W
21/06 CD Estudiantil CNI
Peru Copa de la Liga
0-0 2-1 78 W
13/06 Comerciantes FC
Peru Copa de la Liga
1-0 1-1 54 D
01/06 Cienciano
Peru Liga 1
2-1 2-3 52 L
29/05 Cerro Porteno
Copa Libertadores
0-0 0-2 16 L
24/05 AD Tarma
Peru Liga 1
0-1 2-1 129 W
21/05 Junior
Copa Libertadores
1-3 2-3 63 L
15/05 FC Cajamarca
Peru Liga 1
1-0 1-3 39 L
10/05 Alianza Lima
Peru Liga 1
0-0 1-1 25 D
06/05 Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
0-1 0-2 84 L

Bentin Tacna Heroica

DWWDLDLWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Deportivo Moquegua
Peru Copa de la Liga
2-2 2-3 65 L
12/06 FBC Melgar
Peru Copa de la Liga
2-1 3-2 15 W
30/05 CD Estudiantil CNI
Peru Liga 2
1-1 3-1 44 W
16/05 Santos FC
Peru Liga 2
0-1 1-2 56 L
09/05 Alianza Universidad
Peru Liga 2
0-0 0-0 57 D
01/05 Sport Huancayo II
Peru Liga 2
0-0 0-2 93 L
26/04 Comerciantes FC
Peru Liga 2
1-0 1-1 53 D
18/04 Ayacucho FC
Peru Liga 2
1-0 1-0 55 W
05/04 Deportivo Binacional
Peru Liga 2
2-0 2-1 W
29/03 Union Minas
Peru Liga 2
0-0 0-0 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Cristal vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Cristal win (59%). Probabilities: Sporting Cristal 59%, draw 23%, Bentin Tacna Heroica 18%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Cristal vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Sporting Cristal 1.96 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 0.98), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.