Football · Peru Copa de la Liga · 12/07, 22:30
Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs Club Ada Jaen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
UTC Cajamarca1.78
Club Ada Jaen0.74
1X2
UTC Cajamarca
Draw
Club Ada Jaen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
UTC Cajamarca
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Club Ada Jaen
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1491 · Club Ada Jaen 1491
| UTC Cajamarca | Draw | Club Ada Jaen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UTC Cajamarca | Club Ada Jaen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0 |
Standings · Peru Copa de la Liga · Copa de La Liga 2026, Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | FC Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 15/06 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/04 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
Club Ada Jaen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 11/06 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Union Comercio Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/05 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 05/10 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs Club Ada Jaen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UTC Cajamarca win (62%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 62%, draw 24%, Club Ada Jaen 15%.
How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs Club Ada Jaen?
The model expects 2.52 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.78 · Club Ada Jaen 0.74), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Club Ada Jaen?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.