Football · Bulgaria Second League · 01/08, 19:00
Prediction: FK Fratria vs Rilski Sportist
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
FK Fratria1.45
Rilski Sportist0.91
1X2
FK Fratria
Draw
Rilski Sportist
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Fratria
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Rilski Sportist
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1525 · Rilski Sportist 1512
| FK Fratria | Draw | Rilski Sportist | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Fratria | Rilski Sportist | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | – / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Standings · Bulgaria Second League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Spartak Pleven | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Beroe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Marek Dupnitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Montana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Sportist Svoge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Chernomorets Burgas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Ludogorets Razgrad II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Vihren Sandanski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Rilski Sportist | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | FC Hebar Pazardzhik | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | FK Fratria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Yantra Gabrovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Nesebar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Fratria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Farul Constanta Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 04/05 | Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/04 | Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 09/04 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Rilski Sportist
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/07 | Arda Kardzhali Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Pirin Gotse Delchev Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Botev Ihtiman Bulgaria Third League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | PFC CSKA Sofia III Bulgaria Third League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | PFC Levski Sofia II Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Septemvri Simitli Bulgaria Third League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Slivnishki Geroy Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | OFK Kostinbrod Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/04 | Slavia Sofia II Bulgaria Third League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Rilski Sportist?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (49%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 49%, draw 28%, Rilski Sportist 23%.
How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Rilski Sportist?
The model expects 2.35 goals (FK Fratria 1.45 · Rilski Sportist 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Rilski Sportist?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.