Football · Bulgaria Second League · 10/08, 19:00

Prediction: Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad II

Team pages: Beroe · Ludogorets Razgrad II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Beroe1.51

Ludogorets Razgrad II1.05

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Beroe Draw Ludogorets Razgrad II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Ludogorets Razgrad II 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Beroe 1–0 Ludogorets Razgrad II (1 last)

Beroe3-0Ludogorets Razgrad II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1495 · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1550

	Beroe	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad II
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad II (rating 1495 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	Ludogorets Razgrad II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 4.7	1.2 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:43 +5’	1.91	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beroe 1–0–0 Ludogorets Razgrad II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/07/18 Europe Friendlies	Beroe	3-0 HT 3-0	Ludogorets Razgrad II

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Spartak Pleven	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Ludogorets Razgrad II	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	CSKA Sofia II	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
5	Vihren Sandanski	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
7	Montana	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
8	Chernomorets Burgas	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Marek Dupnitsa	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
10	Beroe	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	FK Fratria	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Sportist Svoge	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
15	Rilski Sportist	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
16	Yantra Gabrovo	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
17	Nesebar	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beroe	Ludogorets Razgrad II
Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 L	0-0 D
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ludogorets Razgrad II (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Beroe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
24/07	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
12/07	Botev Plovdiv Club Friendly List	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
22/05	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	9	5	L
18/05	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
10/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
05/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
02/05	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
24/04	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W

Ludogorets Razgrad II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
28/07	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
04/07	Yantra Gabrovo Club Friendly List	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
23/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
11/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
04/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
16/04	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
10/04	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	3-1	4-2	2	6	W
04/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beroe win (47%). Probabilities: Beroe 47%, draw 28%, Ludogorets Razgrad II 25%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Beroe 1.51 · Ludogorets Razgrad II 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs Ludogorets Razgrad II?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.