Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 21:00
Prediction: SE Gama vs Porto Velho EC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
SE Gama2.06
Porto Velho EC0.76
1X2
SE Gama
Draw
Porto Velho EC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
SE Gama
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Porto Velho EC
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SE Gama
0–2–1
Porto Velho EC
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SE Gama 1558 · Porto Velho EC 1551
| SE Gama | Draw | Porto Velho EC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SE Gama | Porto Velho EC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 2.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 1.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.4 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.1 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Gama 0–2–1 Porto Velho EC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Porto Velho EC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | SE Gama |
| 31/07/21 Brazil Serie D | SE Gama | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Porto Velho EC |
| 10/07/21 Brazil Serie D | Porto Velho EC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | SE Gama |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A3
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SE Gama | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | 26 |
| 2 | Luverdense | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Brasiliense | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 4 | Aparecidense | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Primavera | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 6 | Inhumas | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SE Gama
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Porto Velho EC Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 09/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/05 | Rio Branco ES Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
Porto Velho EC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Humaita Brazil Serie D |
7-0 | 13-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Galvez AC Brazil Serie D |
4-0 | 6-2 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Guaporé RO Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Independencia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Norte |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Independencia Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SE Gama vs Porto Velho EC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SE Gama win (67%). Probabilities: SE Gama 67%, draw 21%, Porto Velho EC 12%.
How many goals are expected in SE Gama vs Porto Velho EC?
The model expects 2.82 goals (SE Gama 2.06 · Porto Velho EC 0.76), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in SE Gama vs Porto Velho EC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.