Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 20:30
Prediction: Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube SP
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Sao Luiz1.17
Velo Clube SP0.88
1X2
Sao Luiz
Draw
Velo Clube SP
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Luiz
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Velo Clube SP
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sao Luiz
0–1
Velo Clube SP
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Luiz 1513 · Velo Clube SP 1509
| Sao Luiz | Draw | Velo Clube SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | 43% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Luiz | Velo Clube SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 2.6 | 3.7 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Luiz 0–0–1 Velo Clube SP
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Velo Clube SP | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sao Luiz |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A15
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cianorte | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Cascavel | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sao Luiz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Joinville | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Guarany de Bage | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Luiz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 20/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 07/06 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
Velo Clube SP
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 03/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube SP?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Luiz win (42%). Probabilities: Sao Luiz 42%, draw 31%, Velo Clube SP 27%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube SP?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Sao Luiz 1.17 · Velo Clube SP 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Luiz vs Velo Clube SP?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.