Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 21:00
Prediction: Iguatu vs Maguary PE
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Iguatu1.34
Maguary PE0.86
1X2
Iguatu
Draw
Maguary PE
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Iguatu
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Maguary PE
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Iguatu
1–0
Maguary PE
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iguatu 1562 · Maguary PE 1476
| Iguatu | Draw | Maguary PE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 31% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iguatu (rating 1562 vs 1476).
- Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Iguatu | Maguary PE | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 3 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.9 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iguatu 1–0–0 Maguary PE
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Maguary PE | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Iguatu |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | America RN | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Maguary PE | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Central SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Sousa EC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Laguna RN | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iguatu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 10/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 25/04 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Maguary PE
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-3 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Iguatu win (47%). Probabilities: Iguatu 47%, draw 30%, Maguary PE 23%.
How many goals are expected in Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Iguatu 1.34 · Maguary PE 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.