Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 21:00
Prediction: ABC vs Aguia de Maraba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
ABC1.94
Aguia de Maraba0.87
1X2
ABC
Draw
Aguia de Maraba
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
ABC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Aguia de Maraba
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ABC
0–1
Aguia de Maraba
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ABC 1532 · Aguia de Maraba 1530
| ABC | Draw | Aguia de Maraba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 25% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ABC | Aguia de Maraba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.4 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ABC 0–0–1 Aguia de Maraba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Aguia de Maraba | 2-1 HT 1-0 | ABC |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | America RN | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Maguary PE | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Central SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Sousa EC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Laguna RN | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ABC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 21/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 2-6 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | Sousa EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Aguia de Maraba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Trem AP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Tocantinopolis EC Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 24/05 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Oratorio RC Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ABC vs Aguia de Maraba?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ABC win (61%). Probabilities: ABC 61%, draw 24%, Aguia de Maraba 15%.
How many goals are expected in ABC vs Aguia de Maraba?
The model expects 2.81 goals (ABC 1.94 · Aguia de Maraba 0.87), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ABC vs Aguia de Maraba?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.