Football · Brazil Serie D · 12/07, 22:00
Prediction: Capital CF vs Nacional AM
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.12Total
Capital CF1.32
Nacional AM0.8
1X2
Capital CF
Draw
Nacional AM
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Capital CF
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Nacional AM
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Capital CF
0–1
Nacional AM
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Capital CF 1551 · Nacional AM 1531
| Capital CF | Draw | Nacional AM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capital CF | Nacional AM | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capital CF 0–0–1 Nacional AM
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Nacional AM | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Capital CF |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A4
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Capital CF | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | Goiatuba | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Ceilandia | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Mixto | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
| 5 | Uniao Rondonopolis | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 9 |
| 6 | Operario VG | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capital CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Nacional AM Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 30/05 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 30/04 | Operario FC MS Brazil Copa Centro-Oeste |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
Nacional AM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Norte |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Sao Raimundo RR Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Capital CF vs Nacional AM?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Capital CF win (48%). Probabilities: Capital CF 48%, draw 30%, Nacional AM 22%.
How many goals are expected in Capital CF vs Nacional AM?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Capital CF 1.32 · Nacional AM 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Capital CF vs Nacional AM?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.