Football · Bulgaria Second League · 08/11, 15:30

Prediction: Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Team pages: Beroe · Pirin Blagoevgrad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Beroe2.56

Pirin Blagoevgrad0.66

1X2

78% 15% 7%

Beroe Draw Pirin Blagoevgrad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLWL

Pirin Blagoevgrad 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Beroe 3–3–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad (6 last)

Beroe2-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Beroe0-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-2Beroe
Beroe1-1Pirin Blagoevgrad
Beroe1-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad0-0Beroe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1501 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1377

	Beroe	Draw	Pirin Blagoevgrad
Our model	78%	16%	7%
Market	78%	15%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beroe (rating 1501 vs 1377).
H2H favours Beroe: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	Pirin Blagoevgrad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	0.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.00

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:47 +11’	1.17	6.00	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beroe 3–3–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/24 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	2-0 HT 2-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
03/11/23 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	0-0 HT 0-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
14/07/23 Bulgaria First League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-2 HT 1-1	Beroe
31/05/23 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	1-1 HT 1-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
30/04/23 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	1-0 HT 1-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
07/10/22 Bulgaria First League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0-0 HT 0-0	Beroe

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
2	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
3	Vihren Sandanski	14	7	5	2	26	13	26
4	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	14	6	5	3	13	10	23
5	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
6	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
7	Beroe	14	6	3	5	21	18	21
8	Spartak Pleven	14	6	2	6	16	25	20
9	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	14	6	2	6	29	24	20
10	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	13	5	4	4	18	14	19
13	Marek Dupnitsa	14	5	3	6	16	18	18
14	Nesebar	14	5	3	6	22	21	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	13	2	3	8	13	26	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	14	0	1	13	5	38	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beroe	Pirin Blagoevgrad
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-2 L	0-2 L
Rilski Sportist	3-1 W	0-1 L
Marek Dupnitsa	2-3 L	0-3 L
Yantra Gabrovo	1-0 W	0-2 L
Nesebar	3-4 L	0-7 L
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-2 D	0-2 L
Spartak Pleven	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Beroe (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beroe

WDDDWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
23/10	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
10/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-3	2-3	10	5	L
27/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
25/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	7	4	W

Pirin Blagoevgrad

LLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
23/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
20/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
07/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
02/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
23/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-7	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beroe win (78%). Probabilities: Beroe 78%, draw 15%, Pirin Blagoevgrad 7%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Beroe 2.56 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.66), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.