Football · Bulgaria Second League · 14/11, 15:00

Prediction: Beroe vs Vihren Sandanski

Team pages: Beroe · Vihren Sandanski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Beroe1.37

Vihren Sandanski1.63

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Beroe Draw Vihren Sandanski

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Vihren Sandanski 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1487 · Vihren Sandanski 1552

	Beroe	Draw	Vihren Sandanski
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vihren Sandanski (rating 1487 vs 1552).
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	Vihren Sandanski
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	3.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +5’	2.90	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
2	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
3	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
4	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
5	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	15	6	5	4	14	13	23
6	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	15	7	2	6	32	25	23
7	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
8	Beroe	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	14	6	4	4	20	14	22
10	Spartak Pleven	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
11	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
12	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
13	Marek Dupnitsa	15	5	3	7	17	21	18
14	Nesebar	15	5	3	7	22	23	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	14	2	4	8	14	27	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	15	0	2	13	8	41	2

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beroe	Vihren Sandanski
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0-2 L	3-1 W
Rilski Sportist	3-1 W	0-0 D
Marek Dupnitsa	2-3 L	1-1 D
Yantra Gabrovo	1-0 W	0-1 L
Nesebar	3-4 L	2-0 W
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	2-3 L
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2-2 D	2-0 W
Montana	0-0 D	4-1 W
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-2 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vihren Sandanski (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beroe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-3	3	11	D
30/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
23/10	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
10/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-3	2-3	10	5	L
27/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D

Vihren Sandanski

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
30/10	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
23/10	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
09/10	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
27/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
21/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
13/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
03/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-1	9	6	W
30/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs Vihren Sandanski?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vihren Sandanski win (43%). Probabilities: Beroe 31%, draw 26%, Vihren Sandanski 43%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model expects 3 goals (Beroe 1.37 · Vihren Sandanski 1.63), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs Vihren Sandanski?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.