Football · Bulgaria Second League · 15/11, 13:30

Prediction: Rilski Sportist vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Team pages: Rilski Sportist · FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Rilski Sportist1.47

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.31

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Rilski Sportist Draw FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Rilski Sportist 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWDLD

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Rilski Sportist 0–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik (3 last)

Rilski Sportist2-3FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik2-0Rilski Sportist
FC Hebar Pazardzhik1-0Rilski Sportist

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rilski Sportist 1520 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1563

	Rilski Sportist	Draw	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Our model	40%	28%	33%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik (rating 1520 vs 1563).
H2H favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rilski Sportist	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	4.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +1’	2.25	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rilski Sportist 0–0–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/19 Bulgaria Third League	Rilski Sportist	2-3 HT 1-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
24/10/18 Bulgaria Third League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2-0 HT 1-0	Rilski Sportist
02/05/18 Bulgaria Third League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-0 HT 0-0	Rilski Sportist

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
2	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
3	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
4	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
5	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	15	6	5	4	14	13	23
6	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	15	7	2	6	32	25	23
7	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
8	Beroe	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	14	6	4	4	20	14	22
10	Spartak Pleven	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
11	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
12	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
13	Marek Dupnitsa	15	5	3	7	17	21	18
14	Nesebar	15	5	3	7	22	23	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	14	2	4	8	14	27	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	15	0	2	13	8	41	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rilski Sportist	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Marek Dupnitsa	3-1 W	3-1 W
Yantra Gabrovo	2-0 W	0-3 L
Nesebar	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sportist Svoge	2-1 W	3-1 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0-0 D	1-2 L
Montana	2-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Hebar Pazardzhik (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rilski Sportist

WDWLWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
23/10	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
10/10	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
26/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
20/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-1	3-1	2	9	W
13/09	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

DDLWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
29/10	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	1	3	L
23/10	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	11	3	W
10/10	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
27/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
21/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	3-0	5-0	4	4	W
14/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
07/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-3	8	10	L
01/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
29/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rilski Sportist vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rilski Sportist win (40%). Probabilities: Rilski Sportist 40%, draw 27%, FC Hebar Pazardzhik 33%.

How many goals are expected in Rilski Sportist vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Rilski Sportist 1.47 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rilski Sportist vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.