Football · Bulgaria Second League · 15/11, 13:30

Prediction: Nesebar vs FK Fratria

Team pages: Nesebar · FK Fratria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Nesebar1.06

FK Fratria1.37

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Nesebar Draw FK Fratria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nesebar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLDLLL

FK Fratria 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Nesebar 1–1 FK Fratria (2 last)

Nesebar3-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria1-0Nesebar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nesebar 1453 · FK Fratria 1509

	Nesebar	Draw	FK Fratria
Our model	28%	30%	43%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1453 vs 1509).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nesebar	FK Fratria
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +21’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nesebar 1–0–1 FK Fratria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	Nesebar	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Fratria
25/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	1-0 HT 1-0	Nesebar

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
2	CSKA Sofia II	14	8	4	2	29	13	28
3	Chernomorets Burgas	14	8	4	2	24	10	28
4	Yantra Gabrovo	14	7	2	5	19	14	23
5	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	15	6	5	4	14	13	23
6	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	15	7	2	6	32	25	23
7	FK Fratria	13	6	4	3	18	12	22
8	Beroe	15	6	4	5	24	21	22
9	Ludogorets Razgrad II	14	6	4	4	20	14	22
10	Spartak Pleven	15	6	3	6	17	26	21
11	Rilski Sportist	14	5	5	4	15	13	20
12	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	13	6	2	5	22	21	20
13	Marek Dupnitsa	15	5	3	7	17	21	18
14	Nesebar	15	5	3	7	22	23	18
15	Montana	14	4	2	8	18	29	14
16	Sportist Svoge	14	2	6	6	10	15	12
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	14	2	4	8	14	27	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	15	0	2	13	8	41	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nesebar	FK Fratria
Ludogorets Razgrad II	0-2 L	1-1 D
Chernomorets Burgas	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-2 L	1-1 D
CSKA Sofia II	0-0 D	1-0 W
Vihren Sandanski	0-2 L	2-2 D
Beroe	4-3 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nesebar

DLWDWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
31/10	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
23/10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
10/10	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
27/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-3	4	6	W
15/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
02/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	3	8	L
29/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

FK Fratria

WDWDDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
09/10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
27/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
07/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
01/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nesebar vs FK Fratria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Fratria win (44%). Probabilities: Nesebar 29%, draw 27%, FK Fratria 44%.

How many goals are expected in Nesebar vs FK Fratria?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Nesebar 1.06 · FK Fratria 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nesebar vs FK Fratria?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.