Football · Bulgaria Second League · 24/07, 17:45

Prediction: Beroe vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Beroe1.44

FC Hebar Pazardzhik1.02

1X2

46% 28% 26%

Beroe Draw FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDLLL

FC Hebar Pazardzhik 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

Beroe 3–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik (6 last)

Beroe2-1FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Beroe1-3FC Hebar Pazardzhik
FC Hebar Pazardzhik0-1Beroe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1484 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1459

	Beroe	Draw	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	47%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	1.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +1’	1.95	3.40	3.40
15:55 +9’	2.15▲	3.30▼	3.00▼
17:02 +2’	1.95▼	3.40▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beroe 3–0–3 FC Hebar Pazardzhik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/25 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
01/09/24 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
17/05/24 Bulgaria First League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0-1 HT 0-0	Beroe
24/11/23 Bulgaria First League	Beroe	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Hebar Pazardzhik
29/07/23 Bulgaria First League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-0 HT 0-0	Beroe
05/06/23 Bulgaria First League	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	3-1 HT 1-0	Beroe

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chernomorets Burgas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Fratria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportist Svoge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yantra Gabrovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nesebar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CSKA Sofia II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ludogorets Razgrad II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marek Dupnitsa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Beroe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vihren Sandanski	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rilski Sportist	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spartak Pleven	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Beroe

LDWWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Botev Plovdiv Club Friendly List	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
22/05	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	9	5	L
18/05	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	0	7	D
10/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
05/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
02/05	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
24/04	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
13/04	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
09/04	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

DWDLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	KF Ballkani Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
04/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-2	10	4	L
27/04	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
22/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/04	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
09/04	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-2	4-3	5	4	W
04/04	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beroe win (46%). Probabilities: Beroe 46%, draw 28%, FC Hebar Pazardzhik 26%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Beroe 1.44 · FC Hebar Pazardzhik 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs FC Hebar Pazardzhik?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.