Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 26/07, 21:00
Prediction: Nublense vs Palestino
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Nublense1.44
Palestino1.14
1X2
Nublense
Draw
Palestino
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nublense
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Palestino
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nublense
1–3–2
Palestino
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nublense 1552 · Palestino 1517
| Nublense | Draw | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Palestino: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nublense | Palestino | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 3.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nublense 1–3–2 Palestino
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 16/08/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Palestino |
| 16/03/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 01/09/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Palestino | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Nublense |
| 14/04/24 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Palestino |
| 12/11/23 Chile Liga de Primera | Nublense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Palestino |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 13 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nublense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Rangers de Talca Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Cup |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Curico Unido Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 14/06 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Cobresal Chile Liga de Primera |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Palestino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Magallanes Chile Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 01/07 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 20/06 | Magallanes Chile Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Liga de Primera |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | O'Higgins Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Riestra Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nublense vs Palestino?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nublense win (42%). Probabilities: Nublense 42%, draw 29%, Palestino 29%.
How many goals are expected in Nublense vs Palestino?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Nublense 1.44 · Palestino 1.14), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Palestino?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.