Football · Scotland Premier League Women · 04/10, 15:10

Prediction: Hibernian (W) vs Hearts (W)

Team pages: Hibernian (W) · Hearts (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Hibernian (W)1.54

Hearts (W)1.77

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Hibernian (W) Draw Hearts (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hibernian (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWLDWW

Hearts (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Hibernian (W) 4–2 Hearts (W) (6 last)

Hibernian (W)2-0Hearts (W)
Hearts (W)1-2Hibernian (W)
Hibernian (W)1-3Hearts (W)
Hearts (W)2-3Hibernian (W)
Hearts (W)2-0Hibernian (W)
Hearts (W)1-3Hibernian (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hibernian (W) 1597 · Hearts (W) 1538

	Hibernian (W)	Draw	Hearts (W)
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hibernian (W) (rating 1597 vs 1538).
H2H favours Hibernian (W): 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hibernian (W)	Hearts (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1	2.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/0/20%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	3.2 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.39 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:37 +12’	2.88	3.40	2.10
20:33 +13’	2.80▼	3.40	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:34 +132’	2.55	3.33	2.42
22:04 +47’	2.53▼	3.43▲	2.39▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hibernian (W) 4–0–2 Hearts (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Hibernian (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Hearts (W)
22/03/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Hibernian (W)
16/11/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Hibernian (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	Hearts (W)
09/11/25 Scotland SWPL Cup Women	Hearts (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	Hibernian (W)
07/09/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Hibernian (W)
04/05/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Hearts (W)	1-3 HT 0-2	Hibernian (W)

Standings · Scotland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rangers (W)	6	6	0	0	25	4	18
2	Celtic (W)	6	5	0	1	13	8	15
3	Hearts (W)	6	4	1	1	21	5	13
4	Hibernian (W)	6	4	1	1	20	6	13
5	Glasgow City (W)	6	3	2	1	19	7	11
6	Partick Thistle (W)	6	2	1	3	11	13	7
7	Spartans (W)	6	2	1	3	6	17	7
8	Motherwell (W)	6	1	0	5	3	19	3
9	Aberdeen (W)	6	0	0	6	2	20	0
10	Montrose LFC (W)	6	0	0	6	5	26	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hibernian (W)	Hearts (W)
Aberdeen (W)	2-0 W	6-0 W
Montrose LFC (W)	6-1 W	7-0 W
Glasgow City (W)	2-2 D	2-2 D
Celtic (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Partick Thistle (W)	3-1 W	3-0 W
Motherwell (W)	7-0 W	5-0 W
Rangers (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hibernian (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	10	0	W
20/09	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	6-1	10	2	W
04/09	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
30/08	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
23/08	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	3-1	7	2	W
16/08	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	7-0	4	1	W
24/05	Hearts (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
17/05	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	3-0	3-1	7	1	W
10/05	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
29/04	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	1	4	L

Hearts (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	2-2	6	1	D
20/09	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
06/09	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	7-0	14	1	W
30/08	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
23/08	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	3-0	5-0	7	1	W
16/08	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	3-0	6-0	12	1	W
24/05	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
17/05	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
10/05	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
28/04	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hibernian (W) vs Hearts (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hearts (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Hibernian (W) 32%, draw 26%, Hearts (W) 42%.

How many goals are expected in Hibernian (W) vs Hearts (W)?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Hibernian (W) 1.54 · Hearts (W) 1.77), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hibernian (W) vs Hearts (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.