Football · Scotland Premier League Women · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Motherwell (W) vs Aberdeen (W)

Team pages: Motherwell (W) · Aberdeen (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Motherwell (W)2.22

Aberdeen (W)1.51

1X2

52% 23% 24%

Motherwell (W) Draw Aberdeen (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Motherwell (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLWLLL

Aberdeen (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Motherwell (W) 4–1–1 Aberdeen (W) (6 last)

Motherwell (W)2-2Aberdeen (W)
Aberdeen (W)3-4Motherwell (W)
Aberdeen (W)2-1Motherwell (W)
Motherwell (W)2-0Aberdeen (W)
Motherwell (W)4-2Aberdeen (W)
Aberdeen (W)0-6Motherwell (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motherwell (W) 1513 · Aberdeen (W) 1385

	Motherwell (W)	Draw	Aberdeen (W)
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motherwell (W) (rating 1513 vs 1385).
H2H favours Motherwell (W): 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motherwell (W)	Aberdeen (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.2	0.9 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	0.9 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.2	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +30’	1.73	3.70	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motherwell (W) 4–1–1 Aberdeen (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Aberdeen (W)
15/03/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	3-4 HT 1-2	Motherwell (W)
25/01/26 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Motherwell (W)
28/09/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Aberdeen (W)
16/02/25 Scotland Premier League Women	Motherwell (W)	4-2 HT 1-2	Aberdeen (W)
06/11/24 Scotland Premier League Women	Aberdeen (W)	0-6 HT 0-0	Motherwell (W)

Standings · Scotland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Rangers (W)	6	6	0	0	25	4	18
2	Celtic (W)	6	5	0	1	13	8	15
3	Hearts (W)	6	4	1	1	21	5	13
4	Hibernian (W)	6	4	1	1	20	6	13
5	Glasgow City (W)	6	3	2	1	19	7	11
6	Partick Thistle (W)	6	2	1	3	11	13	7
7	Spartans (W)	6	2	1	3	6	17	7
8	Motherwell (W)	6	1	0	5	3	19	3
9	Aberdeen (W)	6	0	0	6	2	20	0
10	Montrose LFC (W)	6	0	0	6	5	26	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motherwell (W)	Aberdeen (W)
Spartans (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
Rangers (W)	0-3 L	1-3 L
Montrose LFC (W)	3-1 W	0-1 L
Hearts (W)	0-5 L	0-6 L
Hibernian (W)	0-7 L	0-2 L
Hamilton (W)	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Aberdeen (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motherwell (W)

WWWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-2	9	1	L
18/09	Celtic (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
06/09	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
30/08	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	–	3-1	–	–	W
23/08	Hearts (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	0-5	2	1	L
16/08	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-7	4	1	L
17/05	Aberdeen (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
10/05	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
26/04	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
05/04	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	2-0	4-0	14	0	W

Aberdeen (W)

LLWDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Hibernian (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
20/09	Rangers (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	1-3	0	0	L
06/09	Spartans (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
30/08	Partick Thistle (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	2	0	L
23/08	Glasgow City (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	0	1	L
16/08	Hearts (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-3	0-6	0	1	L
17/05	Motherwell (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
10/05	Hamilton (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	4-0	9	0	W
26/04	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
05/04	Montrose LFC (W) Scotland Premier League Women	1-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motherwell (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motherwell (W) win (52%). Probabilities: Motherwell (W) 52%, draw 23%, Aberdeen (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Motherwell (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Motherwell (W) 2.22 · Aberdeen (W) 1.51), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Motherwell (W) vs Aberdeen (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.