Football · Poland II Liga · 07/11, 12:15

Prediction: Znicz Pruszków vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Team pages: Znicz Pruszków · Podhale Nowy Targ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Znicz Pruszków1.63

Podhale Nowy Targ1.29

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Znicz Pruszków Draw Podhale Nowy Targ

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Znicz Pruszków 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWWWL

Podhale Nowy Targ 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDDDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Znicz Pruszków 1545 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1526

	Znicz Pruszków	Draw	Podhale Nowy Targ
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Znicz Pruszków	Podhale Nowy Targ
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +8’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	14	10	2	2	27	15	32
2	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
3	Gornik Leczna	14	8	2	4	31	15	26
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
5	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	14	6	4	4	21	17	22
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	14	6	4	4	18	20	22
7	Hutnik Krakow	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	14	5	6	3	24	22	21
9	Chojniczanka Chojnice	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
10	Legia Warsaw II	14	6	1	7	28	24	19
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	14	6	1	7	23	26	19
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	14	5	4	5	22	25	19
13	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
14	Avia Swidnik	14	5	2	7	16	21	17
15	Sokol Kleczew	14	3	6	5	18	28	15
16	Slask Wroclaw II	14	3	1	10	22	30	10
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	14	2	4	8	16	32	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	14	0	6	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Znicz Pruszków	Podhale Nowy Targ
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	1-0 W	2-1 W
Stal Stalowa Wola	4-2 W	5-0 W
Lechia Zielona Góra	3-1 W	0-0 D
GKS Tychy 71	1-1 D	0-0 D
OKS Swit Skolwin	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Znicz Pruszków

DWWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
25/10	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
18/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
11/10	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
04/10	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-1	4-2	4	5	W
19/09	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
11/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
06/09	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	4-2	4	8	W
29/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	2-1	3-2	11	2	W
22/08	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	7	2	D

Podhale Nowy Targ

DWWWLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
25/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
09/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
19/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-0	5-0	8	3	W
05/09	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
29/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Znicz Pruszków vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Znicz Pruszków win (44%). Probabilities: Znicz Pruszków 44%, draw 26%, Podhale Nowy Targ 30%.

How many goals are expected in Znicz Pruszków vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Znicz Pruszków 1.63 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Znicz Pruszków vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.