Football · Poland II Liga · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Swidnik

Team pages: Podhale Nowy Targ · Avia Swidnik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Podhale Nowy Targ1.59

Avia Swidnik1.26

1X2

44% 26% 29%

Podhale Nowy Targ Draw Avia Swidnik

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Podhale Nowy Targ 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDDDD

Avia Swidnik 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWLLW

Head-to-head

Podhale Nowy Targ 1–3–2 Avia Swidnik (6 last)

Podhale Nowy Targ2-2Avia Swidnik
Avia Swidnik0-1Podhale Nowy Targ
Avia Swidnik0-0Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ1-6Avia Swidnik
Avia Swidnik1-1Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ0-1Avia Swidnik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podhale Nowy Targ 1522 · Avia Swidnik 1462

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Draw	Avia Swidnik
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podhale Nowy Targ (rating 1522 vs 1462).
H2H favours Avia Swidnik: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Avia Swidnik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	2.1 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +5’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Podhale Nowy Targ 1–3–2 Avia Swidnik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/25 Poland III Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	2-2 HT 1-0	Avia Swidnik
07/09/24 Poland III Liga	Avia Swidnik	0-1 HT 0-1	Podhale Nowy Targ
30/03/24 Poland III Liga	Avia Swidnik	0-0 HT 0-0	Podhale Nowy Targ
02/09/23 Poland III Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	1-6 HT 1-3	Avia Swidnik
11/03/23 Poland III Liga	Avia Swidnik	1-1 HT 0-1	Podhale Nowy Targ
13/08/22 Poland III Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	0-1 HT 0-1	Avia Swidnik

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	15	10	3	2	29	17	33
2	Gornik Leczna	15	9	2	4	33	15	29
3	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
4	Chojniczanka Chojnice	15	7	3	5	26	24	24
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
6	Legia Warsaw II	15	7	1	7	30	25	22
7	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	15	6	4	5	23	20	22
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	15	5	7	3	26	24	22
9	Lechia Zielona Góra	15	6	4	5	24	26	22
10	Olimpia Grudziadz	15	6	4	5	19	22	22
11	Hutnik Krakow	15	6	3	6	24	22	21
12	Avia Swidnik	15	6	2	7	18	22	20
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	15	6	1	8	24	28	19
14	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	15	5	3	7	20	19	18
15	Sokol Kleczew	15	4	6	5	21	30	18
16	OKS Swit Skolwin	15	3	4	8	19	32	13
17	Slask Wroclaw II	15	3	1	11	22	33	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	15	0	6	9	9	25	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Podhale Nowy Targ	Avia Swidnik
Znicz Pruszków	2-2 D	0-2 L
OKS Swit Skolwin	2-2 D	1-0 W
GKS Tychy 71	0-0 D	0-1 L
Lechia Zielona Góra	0-0 D	1-3 L
Chojniczanka Chojnice	2-2 D	0-1 L
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Podhale Nowy Targ (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Podhale Nowy Targ

WWWLWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	12	2	D
31/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
25/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
09/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
19/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-0	5-0	8	3	W
05/09	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
29/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W

Avia Swidnik

LLLDDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
02/11	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
18/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
18/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-2	2-2	12	7	D
13/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
06/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Swidnik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podhale Nowy Targ win (44%). Probabilities: Podhale Nowy Targ 44%, draw 26%, Avia Swidnik 29%.

How many goals are expected in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Swidnik?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Podhale Nowy Targ 1.59 · Avia Swidnik 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Avia Swidnik?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.