Football · Poland II Liga · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: Gornik Leczna vs Hutnik Krakow

Team pages: Gornik Leczna · Hutnik Krakow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Gornik Leczna1.94

Hutnik Krakow1.23

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Gornik Leczna Draw Hutnik Krakow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Leczna 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Hutnik Krakow 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Leczna 1580 · Hutnik Krakow 1469

	Gornik Leczna	Draw	Hutnik Krakow
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Leczna (rating 1580 vs 1469).
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Leczna	Hutnik Krakow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.4	3.6 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +2’	1.70	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	15	10	3	2	29	17	33
2	Gornik Leczna	15	9	2	4	33	15	29
3	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
4	Chojniczanka Chojnice	15	7	3	5	26	24	24
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
6	Legia Warsaw II	15	7	1	7	30	25	22
7	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	15	6	4	5	23	20	22
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	15	5	7	3	26	24	22
9	Lechia Zielona Góra	15	6	4	5	24	26	22
10	Olimpia Grudziadz	15	6	4	5	19	22	22
11	Hutnik Krakow	15	6	3	6	24	22	21
12	Avia Swidnik	15	6	2	7	18	22	20
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	15	6	1	8	24	28	19
14	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	15	5	3	7	20	19	18
15	Sokol Kleczew	15	4	6	5	21	30	18
16	OKS Swit Skolwin	15	3	4	8	19	32	13
17	Slask Wroclaw II	15	3	1	11	22	33	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	15	0	6	9	9	25	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Leczna	Hutnik Krakow
Znicz Pruszków	3-0 W	2-4 L
Lechia Zielona Góra	6-0 W	1-1 D
Stal Stalowa Wola	1-2 L	2-1 W
GKS Tychy 71	0-3 L	0-2 L
Chojniczanka Chojnice	3-1 W	1-2 L
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	0-0 D	1-1 D
Sokol Kleczew	4-0 W	2-1 W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Leczna (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Leczna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
31/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
24/10	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
17/10	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
11/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
04/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
18/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
12/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	4-1	10	4	W
05/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	4-0	10	4	W
30/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	10	1	W

Hutnik Krakow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-0	1-2	6	5	L
31/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	3-2	11	4	W
17/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
11/10	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
03/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
20/09	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	16	4	L
12/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
06/09	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	2-1	2-4	3	8	L
29/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	11	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Leczna vs Hutnik Krakow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Leczna win (53%). Probabilities: Gornik Leczna 53%, draw 24%, Hutnik Krakow 23%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Leczna vs Hutnik Krakow?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Gornik Leczna 1.94 · Hutnik Krakow 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Leczna vs Hutnik Krakow?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.