Football · Poland II Liga · 07/11, 18:00

Prediction: Lechia Zielona Góra vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Team pages: Lechia Zielona Góra · Stal Stalowa Wola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Lechia Zielona Góra1.66

Stal Stalowa Wola1.55

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Lechia Zielona Góra Draw Stal Stalowa Wola

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Zielona Góra 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Stal Stalowa Wola 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Zielona Góra 1482 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1492

	Lechia Zielona Góra	Draw	Stal Stalowa Wola
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Zielona Góra	Stal Stalowa Wola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.8	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +3’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	14	10	2	2	27	15	32
2	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
3	Gornik Leczna	14	8	2	4	31	15	26
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
5	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	14	6	4	4	21	17	22
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	14	6	4	4	18	20	22
7	Hutnik Krakow	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	14	5	6	3	24	22	21
9	Chojniczanka Chojnice	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
10	Legia Warsaw II	14	6	1	7	28	24	19
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	14	6	1	7	23	26	19
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	14	5	4	5	22	25	19
13	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
14	Avia Swidnik	14	5	2	7	16	21	17
15	Sokol Kleczew	14	3	6	5	18	28	15
16	Slask Wroclaw II	14	3	1	10	22	30	10
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	14	2	4	8	16	32	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	14	0	6	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Zielona Góra	Stal Stalowa Wola
Gornik Leczna	0-6 L	2-1 W
Podhale Nowy Targ	0-0 D	0-5 L
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	3-1 W	1-0 W
Znicz Pruszków	1-3 L	2-4 L
Resovia Rzeszow	1-0 W	2-0 W
Hutnik Krakow	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lechia Zielona Góra (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Zielona Góra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
24/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-3	0-6	12	3	L
18/10	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
10/10	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
19/09	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
05/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-1	1-4	10	1	L
29/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	6	3	D

Stal Stalowa Wola

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
24/10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
17/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
10/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
04/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	1-3	2-4	2	5	L
20/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
04/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	3-3	6	7	D
29/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	1-2	9	3	L
21/08	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Zielona Góra win (39%). Probabilities: Lechia Zielona Góra 39%, draw 26%, Stal Stalowa Wola 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Lechia Zielona Góra 1.66 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1.55), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Zielona Góra vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.