Football · Poland II Liga · 08/11, 12:30

Prediction: Avia Swidnik vs Hutnik Krakow

Team pages: Avia Swidnik · Hutnik Krakow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Avia Swidnik1.44

Hutnik Krakow1.35

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Avia Swidnik Draw Hutnik Krakow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Avia Swidnik 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDWWLL

Hutnik Krakow 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLLWLW

Head-to-head

Avia Swidnik 0–2–1 Hutnik Krakow (3 last)

Hutnik Krakow3-3Avia Swidnik
Avia Swidnik1-1Hutnik Krakow
Hutnik Krakow1-0Avia Swidnik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avia Swidnik 1459 · Hutnik Krakow 1490

	Avia Swidnik	Draw	Hutnik Krakow
Our model	38%	28%	34%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avia Swidnik	Hutnik Krakow
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.3	3.8 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.98 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +19’	2.10	3.40	2.80
13:20 +2’	2.05▼	3.50▲	2.88▲
21:54 +19’	2.30▲	3.40▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +8’	2.16	3.42	3.03
10:54 +28’	2.18▲	3.37▼	3.05▲
12:28 +1’	2.13▼	3.55▲	3.00▼
21:44 +28’	2.23▲	3.32▼	2.98▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avia Swidnik 0–2–1 Hutnik Krakow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/19 Poland III Liga	Hutnik Krakow	3-3 HT 0-2	Avia Swidnik
01/06/19 Poland III Liga	Avia Swidnik	1-1 HT 1-1	Hutnik Krakow
10/11/18 Poland III Liga	Hutnik Krakow	1-0 HT 1-0	Avia Swidnik

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	14	10	2	2	27	15	32
2	Gornik Leczna	15	9	2	4	33	15	29
3	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
5	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	14	6	4	4	21	17	22
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	14	6	4	4	18	20	22
7	Hutnik Krakow	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	14	5	6	3	24	22	21
9	Chojniczanka Chojnice	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
10	Legia Warsaw II	14	6	1	7	28	24	19
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	14	6	1	7	23	26	19
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	14	5	4	5	22	25	19
13	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
14	Avia Swidnik	14	5	2	7	16	21	17
15	Sokol Kleczew	14	3	6	5	18	28	15
16	Slask Wroclaw II	14	3	1	10	22	30	10
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	14	2	4	8	16	32	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	15	0	6	9	9	25	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avia Swidnik	Hutnik Krakow
Chojniczanka Chojnice	0-1 L	1-2 L
Znicz Pruszków	0-2 L	2-4 L
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sokol Kleczew	2-2 D	2-1 W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	0-1 L	3-2 W
GKS Tychy 71	0-1 L	0-2 L
Lechia Zielona Góra	1-3 L	1-1 D
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hutnik Krakow (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avia Swidnik

LLLLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
18/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
18/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-2	2-2	12	7	D
13/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
06/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
22/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	4	4	L

Hutnik Krakow

WDWLDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	3-2	11	4	W
17/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
11/10	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
03/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
20/09	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	16	4	L
12/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
06/09	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	2-1	2-4	3	8	L
29/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	2-0	2-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avia Swidnik vs Hutnik Krakow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avia Swidnik win (38%). Probabilities: Avia Swidnik 38%, draw 27%, Hutnik Krakow 35%.

How many goals are expected in Avia Swidnik vs Hutnik Krakow?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Avia Swidnik 1.44 · Hutnik Krakow 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Avia Swidnik vs Hutnik Krakow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.