Football · Poland II Liga · 08/11, 12:00

Prediction: Legia Warsaw II vs Olimpia Grudziadz

Team pages: Legia Warsaw II · Olimpia Grudziadz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Legia Warsaw II1.71

Olimpia Grudziadz1.46

1X2

43% 26% 32%

Legia Warsaw II Draw Olimpia Grudziadz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Legia Warsaw II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Olimpia Grudziadz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Legia Warsaw II 1524 · Olimpia Grudziadz 1521

	Legia Warsaw II	Draw	Olimpia Grudziadz
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Legia Warsaw II	Olimpia Grudziadz
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.20 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.83

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +1’	2.55	3.50	2.25
12:25 +3’	2.45▼	3.50	2.35▲
23:23 +9’	2.10▼	3.50	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +43’	2.33	3.65	2.62
11:09 +13’	2.51▲	3.67▲	2.41▼
13:22	2.47▼	3.68▲	2.45▲
21:43 +23’	2.20▼	3.60▼	2.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	14	10	2	2	27	15	32
2	Gornik Leczna	15	9	2	4	33	15	29
3	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
5	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	14	6	4	4	21	17	22
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	14	6	4	4	18	20	22
7	Hutnik Krakow	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	14	5	6	3	24	22	21
9	Chojniczanka Chojnice	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
10	Legia Warsaw II	14	6	1	7	28	24	19
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	14	6	1	7	23	26	19
12	Lechia Zielona Góra	14	5	4	5	22	25	19
13	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
14	Avia Swidnik	14	5	2	7	16	21	17
15	Sokol Kleczew	14	3	6	5	18	28	15
16	Slask Wroclaw II	14	3	1	10	22	30	10
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	14	2	4	8	16	32	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	15	0	6	9	9	25	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Legia Warsaw II	Olimpia Grudziadz
Resovia Rzeszow	2-1 W	1-0 W
Chojniczanka Chojnice	3-2 W	1-3 L
Slask Wroclaw II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Podhale Nowy Targ	3-0 W	1-3 L
Rekord Bielsko-Biala	1-2 L	2-1 W
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	1-4 L	2-1 W
Sokol Kleczew	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Legia Warsaw II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
24/10	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	3-2	6	8	W
17/10	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
14/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
10/10	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
12/09	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	1-0	1-4	2	4	L
06/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
29/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
23/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-1	6-1	6	2	W

Olimpia Grudziadz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
17/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
12/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
04/10	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
19/09	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-2	1-3	10	2	L
11/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
06/09	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
29/08	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
23/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
16/08	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Legia Warsaw II vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Legia Warsaw II win (43%). Probabilities: Legia Warsaw II 43%, draw 26%, Olimpia Grudziadz 32%.

How many goals are expected in Legia Warsaw II vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Legia Warsaw II 1.71 · Olimpia Grudziadz 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Legia Warsaw II vs Olimpia Grudziadz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.