Football · Poland II Liga · 02/11, 18:00

Prediction: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Avia Swidnik

Team pages: Chojniczanka Chojnice · Avia Swidnik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.74

Avia Swidnik1.46

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Chojniczanka Chojnice Draw Avia Swidnik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chojniczanka Chojnice 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLDWL

Avia Swidnik 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1534 · Avia Swidnik 1456

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Draw	Avia Swidnik
Our model	43%	25%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chojniczanka Chojnice (rating 1534 vs 1456).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Avia Swidnik
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.17
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.54
2	3.40 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:52 +10’	1.85	3.60	3.40
17:30 +4’	1.91▲	3.60	3.25▼
02:00 +1’	2.05▲	3.50▼	3.00▼
05:58 +3’	2.10▲	3.40▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +24’	2.09	3.51	3.11
18:55 +14’	2.15▲	3.48▼	3.00▼
16:01 +1’	2.17▲	3.54▲	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	14	10	2	2	27	15	32
2	GKS Tychy 71	14	7	6	1	20	9	27
3	Gornik Leczna	14	8	2	4	31	15	26
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	14	6	4	4	26	20	22
5	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	14	6	4	4	21	17	22
6	Olimpia Grudziadz	14	6	4	4	18	20	22
7	Hutnik Krakow	14	6	3	5	23	20	21
8	Podhale Nowy Targ	14	5	6	3	24	22	21
9	Legia Warsaw II	14	6	1	7	28	24	19
10	Stal Stalowa Wola	14	6	1	7	23	26	19
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	14	5	4	5	22	25	19
12	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
13	Chojniczanka Chojnice	13	5	3	5	23	23	18
14	Avia Swidnik	13	5	2	6	16	20	17
15	Sokol Kleczew	14	3	6	5	18	28	15
16	Slask Wroclaw II	14	3	1	10	22	30	10
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	14	2	4	8	16	32	10
18	Resovia Rzeszow	14	0	6	8	9	23	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Avia Swidnik
OKS Swit Skolwin	5-1 W	1-0 W
Resovia Rzeszow	2-2 D	1-1 D
Sokol Kleczew	1-1 D	2-2 D
Stal Stalowa Wola	2-0 W	0-4 L
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chojniczanka Chojnice (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chojniczanka Chojnice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-2	2-3	8	8	L
17/10	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
09/10	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
04/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
19/09	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	2-1	5-1	7	5	W
05/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
29/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	6	8	W

Avia Swidnik

LLLLLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	8	8	L
18/10	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
10/10	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
18/09	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-2	2-2	12	7	D
13/09	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
06/09	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
29/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	0-0	1-3	5	4	L
22/08	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
16/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	0-1	0-4	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Avia Swidnik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chojniczanka Chojnice win (43%). Probabilities: Chojniczanka Chojnice 43%, draw 26%, Avia Swidnik 31%.

How many goals are expected in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Avia Swidnik?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.74 · Avia Swidnik 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Avia Swidnik?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.