Football · Poland II Liga · 29/08, 19:00

Prediction: Olimpia Grudziadz vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Team pages: Olimpia Grudziadz · Podhale Nowy Targ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Olimpia Grudziadz1.92

Podhale Nowy Targ1.64

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Olimpia Grudziadz Draw Podhale Nowy Targ

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Grudziadz 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLDDW

Podhale Nowy Targ 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDLWDLLD

Head-to-head

Olimpia Grudziadz 1–1 Podhale Nowy Targ (2 last)

Podhale Nowy Targ1-2Olimpia Grudziadz
Olimpia Grudziadz0-1Podhale Nowy Targ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Grudziadz 1560 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1490

	Olimpia Grudziadz	Draw	Podhale Nowy Targ
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Grudziadz (rating 1560 vs 1490).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Grudziadz	Podhale Nowy Targ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.88
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.56 ★
2	2.88 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +4’	2.10	3.30	2.88
16:01 +1’	1.85▼	3.40▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +2’	1.88	3.56	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Grudziadz 1–0–1 Podhale Nowy Targ

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Poland II Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	1-2 HT 0-1	Olimpia Grudziadz
10/08/25 Poland II Liga	Olimpia Grudziadz	0-1 HT 0-1	Podhale Nowy Targ

Standings · Poland II Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hutnik Krakow	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
2	GKS Tychy 71	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
3	Znicz Pruszków	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
5	Avia Swidnik	5	3	0	2	9	9	9
6	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
7	Olimpia Grudziadz	5	2	2	1	7	8	8
8	Gornik Leczna	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
10	Legia Warsaw II	5	2	0	3	12	7	6
11	Lechia Zielona Góra	5	1	3	1	11	7	6
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	5	2	0	3	8	7	6
13	Slask Wroclaw II	5	2	0	3	9	9	6
14	Chojniczanka Chojnice	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
15	Podhale Nowy Targ	5	1	2	2	8	12	5
16	Sokol Kleczew	5	1	2	2	6	13	5
17	Resovia Rzeszow	5	0	2	3	4	10	2
18	OKS Swit Skolwin	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Grudziadz	Podhale Nowy Targ
Hutnik Krakow	2-2 D	2-5 L
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	3-1 W	0-0 D
Chojniczanka Chojnice	2-2 D	3-2 W
Warta Poznan	2-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Grudziadz

LDWWDWLDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
01/08	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
26/07	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-1	1-4	7	5	L
30/05	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
24/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	3-0	3-1	6	5	W
09/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/05	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
26/04	Warta Poznan Poland II Liga	0-1	2-4	5	3	L

Podhale Nowy Targ

DWLDLWDLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/08	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-3	2-5	4	3	L
08/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-5	4	9	L
01/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	9	6	W
30/05	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/05	Warta Poznan Poland II Liga	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
17/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
09/05	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
03/05	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Grudziadz vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Grudziadz win (43%). Probabilities: Olimpia Grudziadz 43%, draw 25%, Podhale Nowy Targ 32%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Grudziadz vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Olimpia Grudziadz 1.92 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.64), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Grudziadz vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.