Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava II vs Utenis Utena

Team pages: DFK Dainava II · Utenis Utena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

DFK Dainava II1.77

Utenis Utena2.48

1X2

26% 21% 53%

DFK Dainava II Draw Utenis Utena

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Utenis Utena 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDLWLW

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava II 1–1–1 Utenis Utena (3 last)

Utenis Utena2-4DFK Dainava II
DFK Dainava II2-3Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena2-2DFK Dainava II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava II 1428 · Utenis Utena 1454

	DFK Dainava II	Draw	Utenis Utena
Our model	27%	20%	53%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava II	Utenis Utena
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.4 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.8	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.20

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +6’	3.40	4.20	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava II 1–1–1 Utenis Utena

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	2-4 HT 2-3	DFK Dainava II
21/05/22 Lithuania II Lyga	DFK Dainava II	2-3 HT 2-3	Utenis Utena
10/04/21 Lithuania II Lyga	Utenis Utena	2-2 HT 2-2	DFK Dainava II

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vilnius Football Academy	20	14	4	2	67	23	46
2	Nevezis	18	13	4	1	44	13	43
3	Suduva Marijampole II	19	12	3	4	42	22	39
4	FK Sirvena	19	9	5	5	40	24	32
5	FM Klaipedos	20	10	2	8	29	25	32
6	FK Sveikata	19	8	6	5	37	27	30
7	FK Panevezys II	19	8	5	6	43	38	29
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	18	7	5	6	36	30	26
9	FKS Ukmerge	18	7	3	8	26	26	24
10	Banga Gargzdai II	20	6	4	10	31	27	22
11	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	20	6	3	11	35	46	21
12	FK Silute	19	5	4	10	24	45	19
13	Utenis Utena	19	5	4	10	22	43	19
14	FK Viltis Vilnius	19	3	2	14	24	65	11
15	DFK Dainava II	19	3	0	16	28	74	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava II	Utenis Utena
FK Sirvena	1-5 L	0-3 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	3-1 W	4-2 W
FM Klaipedos	0-3 L	1-0 W
FK Silute	1-2 L	0-2 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	0-4 L	4-2 W
Banga Gargzdai II	3-1 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Utenis Utena (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DFK Dainava II

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-5	–	–	L
23/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
16/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-6	5	4	L
09/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
01/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-5	4	2	L
04/07	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-4	2	4	L
17/06	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
13/06	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
07/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
31/05	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-1	3	5	W

Utenis Utena

WLLLDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
21/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	4-2	3	7	W
05/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
02/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
22/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	2-2	2	3	D
19/06	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
12/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-4	1-6	4	5	L
30/05	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
22/05	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava II vs Utenis Utena?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Utenis Utena win (53%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava II 26%, draw 21%, Utenis Utena 53%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava II vs Utenis Utena?

The model expects 4.25 goals (DFK Dainava II 1.77 · Utenis Utena 2.48), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava II vs Utenis Utena?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.