Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: Bangor FC vs Larne FC

Team pages: Bangor FC · Larne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Bangor FC0.63

Larne FC2.16

1X2

9% 19% 72%

Bangor FC Draw Larne FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Bangor FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLLLD

Larne FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Bangor FC 0–1–5 Larne FC (6 last)

Larne FC1-0Bangor FC
Larne FC2-1Bangor FC
Larne FC2-1Bangor FC
Larne FC1-1Bangor FC
Bangor FC0-2Larne FC
Larne FC3-0Bangor FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bangor FC 1442 · Larne FC 1593

	Bangor FC	Draw	Larne FC
Our model	9%	19%	72%
Market	9%	18%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1442 vs 1593).
H2H favours Larne FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bangor FC	Larne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

19.50

X5.00

21.22

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +4’	9.50	5.00	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bangor FC 0–1–5 Larne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/09/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Bangor FC
23/01/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Bangor FC
04/11/25 Northern Ireland League Cup	Larne FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Bangor FC
25/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Bangor FC
06/09/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Bangor FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Larne FC
10/10/23 Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield	Larne FC	3-0 HT 3-0	Bangor FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	12	10	1	1	26	12	31
2	Linfield	11	8	2	1	16	8	26
3	Glentoran	12	6	2	4	16	10	20
4	Larne FC	8	6	1	1	17	6	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	5	2	5	21	19	17
6	Ballymena Utd	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
7	Crusaders	12	5	0	7	16	23	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	4	2	5	11	14	14
9	Cliftonville	12	4	0	8	13	15	12
10	Limavady United	11	4	0	7	11	17	12
11	Portadown	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
12	Bangor FC	12	1	3	8	10	24	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bangor FC	Larne FC
Dungannon Swifts	0-0 D	8-0 W
Coleraine	2-3 L	2-3 L
Crusaders	1-2 L	3-0 W
Portadown	3-1 W	2-0 W
Glentoran	1-1 D	2-1 W
Carrick Rangers	0-4 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bangor FC

LDLDLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
04/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-2	2-3	6	1	L
26/09	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
19/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/09	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
12/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
08/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
05/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
29/08	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

Larne FC

DWDWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
10/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
19/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	3-2	5-2	4	4	W
15/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
12/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier	3-0	8-0	5	2	W
17/04	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bangor FC vs Larne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Larne FC win (72%). Probabilities: Bangor FC 9%, draw 19%, Larne FC 72%.

How many goals are expected in Bangor FC vs Larne FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Bangor FC 0.63 · Larne FC 2.16), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bangor FC vs Larne FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.