Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 30/10, 20:45

Prediction: Larne FC vs Portadown

Team pages: Larne FC · Portadown

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Larne FC2.35

Portadown0.66

1X2

75% 16% 9%

Larne FC Draw Portadown

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Larne FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWLLW

Portadown 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWDWL

Head-to-head

Larne FC 4–2 Portadown (6 last)

Portadown0-2Larne FC
Portadown2-1Larne FC
Larne FC3-0Portadown
Larne FC4-0Portadown
Larne FC3-0Portadown
Portadown2-0Larne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Larne FC 1565 · Portadown 1435

	Larne FC	Draw	Portadown
Our model	75%	18%	8%
Market	76%	15%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Larne FC (rating 1565 vs 1435).
H2H favours Larne FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Larne FC	Portadown
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +10’	1.20	6.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Larne FC 4–0–2 Portadown

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	0-2 HT 0-1	Larne FC
14/02/26 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	2-1 HT 2-1	Larne FC
07/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Portadown
22/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Larne FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Portadown
01/07/25 UK Friendlies	Larne FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Portadown
15/02/25 Northern Ireland Premier	Portadown	2-0 HT 2-0	Larne FC

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Coleraine	13	11	1	1	31	12	34
2	Linfield	13	10	2	1	20	10	32
3	Larne FC	10	7	1	2	20	9	22
4	Glentoran	12	6	2	4	16	10	20
5	Carrick Rangers	13	5	3	5	22	20	18
6	Ballymena Utd	11	4	3	4	17	15	15
7	Cliftonville	13	5	0	8	16	16	15
8	Crusaders	13	5	0	8	16	28	15
9	Dungannon Swifts	12	4	2	6	12	17	14
10	Limavady United	12	4	1	7	12	18	13
11	Portadown	13	2	2	9	11	23	8
12	Bangor FC	13	1	3	9	11	26	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Larne FC	Portadown
Bangor FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Linfield	1-2 L	1-2 L
Coleraine	2-3 L	0-3 L
Cliftonville	2-0 W	2-1 W
Glentoran	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Larne FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Larne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
20/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
16/10	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
10/10	Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
19/09	Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier	3-2	5-2	4	4	W
15/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
12/09	Portadown Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
04/09	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
15/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Portadown

LLLDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
17/10	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/10	Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
03/10	Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier	1-1	3-1	5	7	W
26/09	Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
19/09	Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
15/09	Linfield Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
12/09	Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
28/08	Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier	0-2	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Larne FC vs Portadown?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Larne FC win (75%). Probabilities: Larne FC 75%, draw 16%, Portadown 9%.

How many goals are expected in Larne FC vs Portadown?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Larne FC 2.35 · Portadown 0.66), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Larne FC vs Portadown?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.