Football · Northern Ireland Premier · 13/11, 20:45
Prediction: Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders
Team pages: Carrick Rangers · Crusaders
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.81Total
Carrick Rangers2.43
Crusaders1.38
1X2
Carrick Rangers
Draw
Crusaders
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Carrick Rangers
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Crusaders
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carrick Rangers
3–2–1
Crusaders
(6 last)
- Carrick Rangers4-0Crusaders
- Crusaders2-2Carrick Rangers
- Carrick Rangers6-1Crusaders
- Crusaders2-2Carrick Rangers
- Carrick Rangers1-2Crusaders
- Crusaders3-4Carrick Rangers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carrick Rangers 1497 · Crusaders 1436
| Carrick Rangers | Draw | Crusaders | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carrick Rangers (rating 1497 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Carrick Rangers: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carrick Rangers | Crusaders | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.3 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.3 | 1.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carrick Rangers 3–2–1 Crusaders
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/26 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Crusaders |
| 01/09/26 Northern Ireland County Antrim Shield | Crusaders | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Carrick Rangers |
| 28/03/26 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Crusaders |
| 30/12/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Crusaders | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Carrick Rangers |
| 08/11/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Carrick Rangers | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Crusaders |
| 09/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier | Crusaders | 3-4 HT 3-2 | Carrick Rangers |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 36 |
| 2 | Coleraine | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 35 |
| 3 | Larne FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Cliftonville | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 19 | 21 |
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 19 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 8 | Crusaders | 15 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 30 | 18 |
| 9 | Ballymena Utd | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 14 |
| 11 | Bangor FC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 12 |
| 12 | Portadown | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 25 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carrick Rangers | Crusaders |
|---|---|---|
| Limavady United | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Linfield | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Dungannon Swifts | 4-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Larne FC | 2-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Ballymena Utd | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carrick Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 31/10 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
1-4 | 1-7 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Linfield Northern Ireland Premier |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 10/10 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
3-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Crusaders Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Glentoran Northern Ireland Premier |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier |
2-3 | 2-5 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | Cliftonville Northern Ireland Premier |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
Crusaders
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 31/10 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Coleraine Northern Ireland Premier |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Ballymena Utd Northern Ireland Premier |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/10 | Larne FC Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | Carrick Rangers Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Bangor FC Northern Ireland Premier |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Linfield Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/09 | Dungannon Swifts Northern Ireland Premier |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Limavady United Northern Ireland Premier |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carrick Rangers win (59%). Probabilities: Carrick Rangers 59%, draw 21%, Crusaders 19%.
How many goals are expected in Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders?
The model expects 3.81 goals (Carrick Rangers 2.43 · Crusaders 1.38), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.